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Marv's Weather Service
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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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2019-07-16 - Tropical Weather Update - with today's report we are taking a look ahead at the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ..
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note - stay tuned .. our reports will be updated throughout the day if there are any significant tropical weather changes ..
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bottom line - no tropical development is expected this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico .. tropical development chances may begin to increase again near the end of this month ..
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Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico .. with Barry well inland over northwestern Missouri we will turn our eyes back out into the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to see if anything is brewing .. it looks like tropical development is not expected this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico .. with that said, there are things that we are always keeping an eye on, just in case ..
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looking ahead - it is possible that we could see no tropical development right through all of next week as well .. after that, the tropical development chances look to increase as we close this month and open up the month of August .. it appears that upward motion across the Atlantic Basin will increase by late this month leading to an increase in overall favorable environmental conditions .. the very long range CFS model continues to show these favorable conditions and has been very consistent in showing a tropical system to impact the Lesser Antilles between August 01st and August 05th .. the CFS model also shows a second tropical system potentially impacting the Lesser Antilles around mid-August .. the CFS model shows this second tropical system ultimately impacting the Bahamas and riding up the US East Coast between August 17 and August 20 ..
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looking way ahead - there are pretty strong signals in the data that suggests things may be quite busy throughout August and September with multiple threats to the US Coastline, both the East Coast and the Gulf Coast .. model guidance like the CFS model will never, ever get the exact details of the weather right, there are some concerning signals in the data that suggest that August, September and maybe even part of October could be quite busy .. the forecast El Nino is not going to happen and its influence on the Atlantic Basin is now starting to fade .. the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature profile is trending towards one that is more favorable for tropical development .. the level of shear as compared to average has fallen to near or below average across the Caribbean and the central and eastern Atlantic .. all of these signals say to us that conditions may be favorable to even quite favorable for tropical development throughout August and September .. with that said, the amount of unstable air over the Caribbean and the central and eastern Atlantic has been below average .. meaning, the atmosphere has had a more difficult time than average lately in producing robust thunderstorm activity .. thus while things may get busy during August and September, it doesnít look like itíll get crazy, insane busy in terms of the number of named storms ..
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bottom line - tropical development looks unlikely throughout this week and possibly right through next week as well .. beyond this, tropical development chances look to increase at the very end of this month and the very beginning of August. In addition, August and September could be quite busy in terms of tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin with the possibility of multiple threats to the US Coastline .. ie both the East Coast and the Gulf Coast ..
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
contact us
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Marv's tropical weather reports
Marv's Weather Service - home page
disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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