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Marv's Weather Service
Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Update
2019-10-11 as of 10:00 am
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areas of interest ..
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western Caribbean - tropical development is possible late this weekend and early next week .. this tropical system may move into the Bay of Campeche later next week ..
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and ..
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south coast of New England - the storm that is located about 200 miles to the south-southeast of Martha’s Vineyard has become better organized and has the potential of becoming a short-lived sub-tropical storm at some point today ..
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western Caribbean - satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring over the southwestern Caribbean .. this convection is being caused by a broad low pressure system over this area of the southwestern Caribbean ..
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at this time - analysis of environmental conditions indicates that wind shear values are between 10 and 20 knots across the southwestern Caribbean, however, wind shear values increase to 20 to 25 knots across the northwestern Caribbean .. we do still think that we will see this area of disturbed weather gradually increase in organization this weekend as it moves right along the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama ..
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looking ahead - during the first half of next week, this area of disturbed weather may push into the northwestern Caribbean very close to the coast of Belize and northern Honduras .. it continues to be quite possible that this area of disturbed weather may develop into at least a tropical depression either later this weekend in the southwestern Caribbean or during the first half of next week in the northwestern Caribbean ..
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model guidance - some of the model guidance have trended a little stronger with their forecasts for tropical development with this system ..
GFS and Canadian model - now forecast some tropical development near the coast of Belize and northern Honduras early next week with more robust development occurring late next week in the Bay of Campeche .. both the GFS and Canadian model forecast a tropical storm to head northeastward next weekend from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the coast of south-central and southeastern Louisiana .. it should be noted that the GFS model has been extremely consistent with development for about 2 weeks now .. it’s also worthy to note that even though the European model does not show outright tropical development, it is showing a very similar evolution with a system heading into the northwestern Caribbean near Belize early next week and then into the Bay of Campeche late next week .. what we think we are seeing in the model guidance is a continuing trend towards a robust trough of low pressure to move into the eastern United States late next week .. this leads to this tropical system being pulled northwestward into the Bay of Campeche late next week and then driven north and northeastward towards the northern Gulf Coast next weekend ..
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bottom line - we still think that there is a 50 percent chance for this disturbance to become a tropical depression and possibly even a tropical storm early next week near the coast of Belize or northern Honduras .. in addition, this system looks likely to move into the Bay of Campeche late next week where it could develop further .. given the weather pattern change later next week towards a upper level trough of low pressure moving into the eastern United States we think that the GFS model and the Canadian model may be on the right track and that the European model may be showing its westward bias and its bias towards a stronger high pressure ridge and weaker trough of low pressure .. we still think the models are still adjusting to later next week’s weather pattern change and that we will probably see additional shifts and changes in the model guidance over the next few days ..
heads up - be careful when looking at the model guidance for later next week and beyond as they may still not be totally catching onto the weather pattern changes that could occur .. we do think that mid and late October climatology is useful when looking at what could occur with this tropical system. Climatology seems to suggest any organizing and strengthening tropical system in the northwestern Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche is usually pulled either towards the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico or across the Florida Peninsula and up the US East Coast .. this is what the GFS and Canadian model seems to be trending towards in their latest forecasts ..
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heavy rainfall for central America - this area of disturbed weather is likely to produce heavy rainfall from today through this weekend across Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and eastern parts of Nicaragua and Honduras .. this heavy rainfall threat is likely to spread into Guatemala, Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico during the first half of next week .. this heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides across these areas ..
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south coast of New England - the ocean storm that is located about 200 miles to the south-southeast of Martha’s Vineyard has become better organized this morning and has the potential of becoming a short-lived sub-tropical storm at some point today .. any development into a sub-tropical storm will be short-lived as environmental conditions will become highly unfavorable this weekend and weakening is then likely ..
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forecast impacts - this ocean storm will continue to produce wind gusts of up to 40 to 60 mph the rest of today through tonight across southern and eastern Long Island, across the south coast of New England and also across Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket ..
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wave heights - of up to 25 to 35 feet are expected to continue across the offshore waters of the Mid-Atlantic and across the offshore waters to the south of Long Island and Cape Cod today and tonight .. this storm will continue to be a major marine hazard today through Saturday from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic states ..
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
contact us
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Marv's Weather Service - home page
disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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