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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from

Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page and NOAA

2021-05-11 - Tropical Weather Update - at this time no Tropical Development is expected for at least the next couple of weeks .. but we wanted to mention a couple of things that we are watching ..

bottom bottom line .. we think that we may have to wait until early to probably more like mid June to see our first named tropical system of the season ..

see details below ..

heads up - check our buoy reports in your area for wind speed and wave heights ..

Tropical Development - no Tropical Development is expected for at least the next one to possibly two weeks ..

at this time - tropical development continues to be unlikely across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for about the next 1 to 2 weeks and possibly longer than that .. the current weather pattern remains unfavorable for any sort of tropical development due to a very progressive and fast moving weather pattern .. this weather pattern includes frontal systems pushing off of the East Coast of the United States every few days and very strong wind shear values across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ..

looking ahead - there are clues in the data that suggest we could see the weather pattern change into one that could lead to us watching for tropical development between the western Caribbean and the Bahamas late this month or during early and mid June ..

looking way ahead - the weather pattern may change from a large and persistent upper level trough of low pressure in the eastern United States into an upper level high pressure system over the eastern United States by about the week of May 24, if not a little later than that .. it seems the weather forecast guidance continues to delay the weather pattern change .. last week, it was showing this weather pattern shift during the week of May 17 and now it seems to have delayed it to a week later .. it is quite possible that we may have to wait until early June for a much warmer weather pattern in the eastern United States with the upper level high pressure system building in ..

then looking ahead - the question then becomes will we see any sort of tropical mischief or development once the weather pattern reverses from a trough in the eastern United States to a ridge of high pressure in the eastern United States ..

GFS and European ensemble model guidance - shows a couple of its members hinting at tropical mischief in either the northwestern Caribbean or the Bahamas by the week of May 24 .. it is not a very strong signal at all right now, but it is still a subtle signal ..

bottom line - we still think that we’ll probably not see any sort of meaningful tropical mischief or development until about early to mid June .. we think we will eventually translate into a pattern of a big ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States, I think that where the model guidance keeps pushing this pattern change further down the road is a sign that it probably wont happen for at least the next week to probably even 2 weeks .. so our thoughts are that we should see an upper level high pressure ridge build into the eastern United States by the first half of June .. at the same time this is happening, we may see an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation move into the Atlantic Basin .. this will help to foster an increase in convection and lead to a higher chance of tropical development .. given all of this we still think that we may see the first named tropical system of the season during early to probably more like mid June somewhere between the western Caribbean and the Bahamas ..

bottom bottom line - we wanted to mention one thing to keep in mind when making your hurricane preparations this season and that is the marked increase in supplies, especially building supplies .. building supplies, especially lumber, has doubled and even tripled in just the past year due to the whole “supply and demand” .. so when making your preparations this season and you think you may need plywood for your windows or other construction items, buy early because it’s quite possible, if not likely, that plywood, lumber and other items will be sold out long before any Hurricane Warnings go up .. it is a real complicating factor going into this hurricane season ..

. end of report ..

2020-03-11 - 2020 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast ..

bottom line - we are forecasting above average tropical storm and hurricane season due to a combination of either neutral ENSO conditions or La Nina conditions, an active Western African Monsoon, above average ocean water temperatures and the possibility of lower than average wind shear conditions .. there is also the possibility of well above average activity this season and this is something that will need to be watched closely ..

bottom bottom line - at least 15 Named Storms, 8 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 3 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) ..

2020 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone names ..
Arthur .. Bertha .. Cristobal .. Dolly .. Edouard .. Fay .. Gonzalo .. Hanna .. Isaias .. Josephine .. Kyle .. Laura .. Marco .. Nana .. Omar .. Paulette .. Rene .. Sally .. Teddy .. Vicky .. Wilfred

NOTE - if you would like you can stop reading right now .. below is just our detail ..

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index forecast - we are forecasting an ACE index this year of 130 .. this number basically says that we expect that overall activity in the Atlantic will be above average ..

ENSO conditions - ENSO neutral conditions are present across the Pacific and a majority of the ENSO model guidance are forecasting neutral conditions through the rest of this year .. it should be noted that some of the guidance, especially the CFS model, is forecasting a transition to weak LA Nina conditions by late summer and early autumn .. based on everything that we have looked at, especially the potential for a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, that we will see neutral ENSO conditions throughout the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season .. with that said, ENSO forecasts this time of year can be highly inaccurate ..

sea surface temperatures - sea surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and the Caribbean (west of 55 West Longitude) is warmer than average .. across the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are below average .. the exception is right along the west coast of Africa where ocean water temperatures are above average .. one of the keys in determining how active/inactive the hurricane season will be is how much will the deep tropics (south of 25 North Latitude) warms up during April, May and June .. it should be noted that at this time in 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Atlantic Main Development Region was running a little below average in sea surface temperatures, but this pattern reversed during the hurricane season leading to a much more active season than what was originally thought .. we think that it is likely that the deep tropics will seeing above average ocean water temperatures, much like what we have seen during the last 3 hurricane seasons, during July, August and September .. in addition, it looks like the Western African Monsoon will be active this year leading to the development of some strong tropical waves moving off of Africa ..

analog years - these are the analog years that seem to be a close match right now to what the 2020 hurricane season may be like. They are 1933, 1952, 1953, 1959, 1979, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2005 & 2007 ..

wind shear forecast - a majority of the seasonal model guidance are forecasting below average wind shear from the Lesser Antilles through the Caribbean during much of the hurricane season .. in addition, a majority of the model guidance are forecasting the development of below average wind shear during August, September and October across the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast of the United States .. this is a different look for the Caribbean than what we have seen in recent years whereas conditions may be much more favorable for Caribbean activity this year than has been in the past few years ..

landfall threat forecast - the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could be very active this hurricane season .. a very persistent western Atlantic ridge of high pressure looks to remain in place through this summer into the fall .. this, in combination, with an active Western African Monsoon could lead to systems being guided first into and through the Caribbean and then into the Gulf of Mexico .. unlike previous years we think that the Caribbean may “wake up” and be active in terms of tropical storm/hurricane development ..

bottom line - this means that Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula could be at risk this year .. as for the Gulf of Mexico, even though the entire Gulf of Mexico looks to be at significant risk this season, the west coast of Florida may be at particular risk in June and then again in October .. in addition, the northern and western Gulf Coast may have their highest risk during August and September .. further east, it appears that given the forecast position of the upper level high pressure system that the region from the Bahamas to the South and North Carolina coast may be at risk this year for a tropical storm or hurricane impact ..

looking ahead - given our expectations for an active season in the Caribbean and the potential for an active Western African Monsoon, both the Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands will need to be watched closely for a tropical storm or hurricane impact .. for all of the other areas across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico that are not highlighted as risk areas .. it does not mean there will not be a threat or impact this season ..

at this time - we are looking at start sending out daily tropical weather discussions for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Friday, May 1st ..

Tropical Weather - year end update

date - 2019-12-01

2010s Hurricane Seasons (decade-in-review) and Predictions for 2020s

by - Dr. Ryan Truchelut - WeatherTiger

edited by - Marv Market - Marv’s Weather Service

decade-in-review - December 1st marks not only the official conclusion of the 2019 hurricane season, but the final month of another decade we failed to name before it ends. A decade in which cell phones became just phones, more Millennials visited Iceland than Sears, and politely declining to join your co-worker Janet’s essential oils MLM became increasingly difficult.

The 2010s were a decade of contrasts for Atlantic hurricanes. Despite darkest timeline storms like Sandy, Irma, and Michael, it was an era of remarkable luck for the continental U.S. coast. Cumulative Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the 2010s tallied 20% above long-term norms, but there were only three U.S. major hurricane landfalls—around half of average.

Tropical activity is chunky due to oceanic and atmospheric memory, and the 2010s divide cleanly into three heftychonks. First, the Sriracha Era of 2010-2012 saw spicy open ocean activity but few landfalls; second, the 2013-15 Cronut Era fused low activity and few impacts; finally, the Tide Pod Era of 2016-2019 brought nausea-inducing elevated activity and repeated U.S. threats. Read on for a recap of each season and our reflections on the 2020s.

2010

The distant past in which a shave and a haircut cost two bitcoins had one of the lowest ratios of U.S. landfalls to storm activity. Despite 19 named storms, tied for third-highest, and five major hurricanes, only two tropical storms and a spectacular double rainbow affected the continental U.S. in 2010. Category 4 Hurricane Earl menaced the Northeast, but ultimately remained well offshore.

2011

The 2011 hurricane season was forgettable despite 19 tropical storms. The exception was Hurricane Irene, which made landfall as a category 1 in the Outer Banks and rocketed north-northeast over New York City as a tropical storm, causing $16 billion in water damage. These impacts were exacerbated by Tropical Storm Lee, which caused flooding in Louisiana and the besodden East Coast. Also, beneath its façade of radical indifference, with the perspective of time, it’s safe to say honey badger secretly cares a lot.

2012

The 2012 hurricane season’s 19 storms and 10 hurricanes again mostly stayed out to sea, other than Louisiana’s category 1 Isaac, and generational freak storm Sandy. While Sandy became a non-tropical low prior to reaching shore, gales across a 1,000 mile diameter broke records for single-storm wind energy, sent surge up to 12’ into the Northeast, and flooded much of New York City.

Sandy was responsible for over 230 deaths and $70 billion in damages, slotting it temporarily as the second-costliest U.S. hurricane. As testament to Sandy’s bizarre co-mingling of tropical and mid-latitude weather, its remnants caused feet of snow in Appalachia, and allowed Taylor Swift to purchase Manhattan from panicked natives for $476 in Red tour merch.

2013

The 2013 season was more incompetent than the deaf interpreter at Nelson Mandela’s funeral, tallying less than a third of normal activity. Two hurricanes formed, fewest since 1950, and one tropical storm made U.S. landfall.

2014

The 2014 season couldn’t even with a powerful El Niño, though six hurricanes managed to awkwardly dab their way to net activity about two-thirds of normal. Eastern North Carolina shrugged off category 2 Arthur in early July.

2015

The El Niño-hurricane feud continued, eclipsing even the vicious Taylor Swift-Sarah Koenig spat chronicled in “Bad Blood [Best Buy Payphone Remix].” The result was another season at 60% of normal and two early season U.S. tropical storms. Joaquin became a category 4 over the Bahamas, but after some intrigue absconded well offshore.

2016

To this point, the continental U.S. had been enjoying a historically calm decade, with no major landfalls (or any Florida hurricanes) since 2005. Unfortunately, starting in 2016, a Zillennial generation of hurricanes broke out of the Atlantic’s meteorological escape room and headed for shore wreathed in clouds of cotton candy e-vapes.

Mean reversion was unkind to Florida, where category 1 Hermine snapped an eleven-year drought and caused outsized wind damage in the Panhandle. The marquee storm of 2016 was Matthew, which attained category 5 status in the Caribbean, hooked erratically north then west, scraped 30 miles off the Florida East Coast as a major hurricane, and weakened dramatically before landfall in South Carolina. Over $10 billion in damage occurred with this closest of calls.

Overall, 2016 notched 140% of typical hurricane activity, with storms clustering over Florida and the Southeast. The worst was yet to come.

2017

This Fyre Festival of a year is the most destructive season on record. Not only did six major hurricanes catapult activity to 225% of normal, there were six landfalls on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Of these, Harvey and Irma became the second- and third-costliest continental U.S. storms.

Category 4 Harvey’s landfall in central Texas in August began an incredible five-week run of catastrophic hurricanes. Harvey did significant wind damage, but its most devastating impacts were biblical floods that overwhelmed the Houston metro area as the storm stalled for the next five days. Rainfall totals over 60” resulted in the loss of over 100 lives and damages estimated at $125 billion.

Yet, Harvey has competition for worst hurricane of 2017. Hurricane Irma generated more wind energy than the entire 2013 or 2015 seasons, shattered records for Category 5 longevity, and terrorized Florida for a week. Land interaction with Cuba clipped Irma’s wings on final approach, and the hurricane sliced through the Keys as a category 4 before striking Southwest Florida with 130 mph gusts and riding up the peninsula. Irma’s toll of over 130 deaths and $78 billion in destruction could have been yet worse.

Completing 2017’s fearsome triad, Hurricane Maria ravaged Puerto Rico at category 4 intensity in late September, the strongest landfall there in 80 years. Otherwise, category 1 Nate was a relatively harmless cool-down for the Gulf Coast. A brutal year with far-reaching implications for emergency management and civic planning, 2017 was the worst season of 2010s, other than the last season of Dexter.

2018

Cool water in the Tropical Atlantic pointed to a quiet 2018, but the season harnessed Big Subtropical Energy to climb 25% above normal with two epochal U.S. landfalls. A record seven subtropical storms occurred, and limited activity in the Deep Tropics was offset by intense storms between 20° and 40°N. Hurricane Florence epitomized this, plowing west across the unusually warm subtropical Atlantic to strike North Carolina. While Florence weakened to a category 1 by landfall, its glacial speed unleashed rain totals up to 36” on the Carolinas, causing over 50 deaths and $25 billion in damages.

And then there was Michael. There were only three category 5 U.S. landfalls prior to Michael—none in October, none on the Florida Gulf Coast. Its four-day blitzkrieg of dizzying intensification as it streaked out of the Caribbean and across the febrile eastern Gulf barely allowed North Florida to prepare for sustained winds to 160 mph and surge to 16’. Michael remained a category 3 with observed gusts to 120 mph into Georgia.

Hurricanes come and go, but category 5s last for generations. The numbers, nearly 60 U.S. deaths and a price tag of $25 billion, do not adequately describe the hellzone in Michael’s wake.

2019

The 2019 season is a microcosm of the 2010s: a White Claw variety pack of tropical flavors including staggering rapid intensification, destructive flooding, and a northeast shift in where hurricanes developed and intensified.

On one hand, brief storms were plentiful. The weaker 80% of this year’s 18 storms cumulatively are responsible for less than 20% of 2019’s total wind energy. Climatologically, that inequality is absurd, like expecting the Joker to play by society’s rules. Among these weak storms was Hurricane Barry, a poorly organized category 1 that reached Louisiana in mid-July.

On the other, 2019 served up twin category 5 monsters. Lorenzo mercifully attained this status in the open Atlantic, well northeast of any known cat 5; Dorian cruelly expended more wind energy in the Bahamas than any other Atlantic hurricane had over any landmass, ever.

A classic Cape Verde hurricane, Dorian appeared poised to end South Florida’s post-Wilma luck. However, on approach to Abaco Island, the already formidable storm uncorked an insane rapid intensification event that launched its sustained winds to 185 mph, tied for the Atlantic’s second-highest. Worse, Dorian then stalled, lashing Grand Bahama Island with winds equivalent to an EF-4 tornado for 24 hours, resulting in the total destruction of many communities. Floridians held their breath as the compact hurricane subsequently crawled north just far enough offshore to avoid major damage. Dorian made landfall in North Carolina as a category 1.

The dodged bullet of Dorian was the only major U.S. threat in 2019, MoMo excepted. Tropical Storm Imelda organized hours before reaching land, but another multi-day stall brought rain totals over 40” and billions in flood damage to eastern Texas. Unfavorable Gulf shear in October prevented Nestor and Olga from making landfall as tropical storms, and net hurricane activity again totaled 25% above normal.

Predictions for 2020s - We’ve come a long way since 2010 (e.g., the friends kickin’ in the backseat with Rebecca Black have graduated pre-med programs with crushing student loan debt). What lessons can be drawn from this bimodal decade of immoderation, in which all hurricane seasons tallied either below 65% or over 120% of normal activity?

Comparing the tracks of the decade’s 72 hurricanes with climatology reveals contrasting regional anomalies. Much above normal hurricane activity was centered in the western Atlantic east of Florida and the Carolinas. The subtropical central and eastern Atlantic were also busy. The Main Development Region west of Africa was close to normal; the Gulf and Caribbean each saw far below typical hurricane frequency.

The paucity of near-shore hurricanes is reflected in U.S. landfall count (13) registering 80% of normal, despite seven active seasons of the decade’s ten. Curiously, the Florida East Coast evaded multiple scrapes and finished with no hurricane landfalls, against an expected three.

bottom line - is if you’re in the Northeast U.S., North Florida, Southwest Florida, or Houston, your luck was not ideal. Everyone else, don’t complain.

So, here’s some possibly ill-advised predictions for the 2020s.

First - the villain in Bee Movie 2 will be named Jeff Beezos, all legacy media will merge with Joe Rogan’s podcast, and global warming will be solved by mirroring the foot-thick layer of abandoned e-scooters covering Earth.

Second - look for the multitudes contained in the 2019 hurricane season—mind-boggling rapid intensification, erratic stalls, destructive flooding—to continue to become more common in the next decade.

Finally - expect more May starts to hurricane seasons, and for favored regions of development to keep expanding north.

bottom line - Will the U.S. again be disproportionately fortunate in the 2020s ? .. we wouldn’t bet on it. There’s no long-term trend in continental U.S. landfall energy, and the 2010s show that provident streaks often have violent ends. Shift Matthew or Dorian 75 miles west and we wouldn’t be talking about South Florida’s good fortune. Remember, hurricane seasons are chunky.

looking ahead - Let’s revisit these predictions in December 2029. In the meantime, see you next year for the first hurricane season of the 2020s .. here’s wishing you a happy rest of the decade.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover ..

for more details check out

Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .

NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

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