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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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2018-11-24 - Tropical Weather Update - with today's report we have an update on the Southwestern Atlantic .. yup it’s not over till the ‘fat lady does her thing’ ..
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Southwestern Atlantic - it looks like there will be at least a couple of chances for sub-tropical development over the next week or so across the southwestern Atlantic ..satellite imagery indicated that there are some shower and thunderstorm activity occurring at the tail end of a frontal boundary near the northern and eastern Bahamas .. it looks very likely that an area of low pressure will form at the tail end of this front just east of Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas tonight or Saturday with this low pressure system heading east-northeastward towards Bermuda this weekend and into the open Atlantic during the first half of next week..
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looking ahead - even though the amount of wind shear across the southwestern Atlantic is very strong, there is still a chance that this low pressure system may try to become a sub-tropical storm as it will be moving in the same direction as the overall wind shear vector thus causing a low net wind shear over it .. even if we do not see sub-tropical development from this low pressure system winds of gale force along with seas of 10 to 15 feet are likely across the western Atlantic in the area from the US Southeast Coast eastward to Bermuda through this weekend into early next week ..
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bottom line - those of you on the island of Bermuda should monitor the progress of this low pressure system as it could bring you tropical storm force winds this weekend as it moves very close to you ..
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southwestern Atlantic - a second chance for sub-tropical development either over the eastern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico or more likely over the southwestern Atlantic late next week ..
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model guidance - a large majority of the model guidance, including the GFS, FV3-GFS and European model guidance are all forecasting the development of a low pressure system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico around Thursday of next week .. the model guidance are all unanimous in forecasting this storm system to cross south Florida bringing heavy rainfall and squally weather to central and south Florida and the northern Bahamas next Thursday into next Friday .. beyond this the model guidance seems to diverge with the GFS model guidance forecasting this low pressure system to head eastward and pass south of Bermuda next weekend while the European model forecasts dissipation just east of the Bahamas next weekend ..
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looking ahead - there is support from the ensemble guidance on the development of this second low pressure system in either the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the northern Bahamas late next week .. we do think that this second low pressure system for late next week will also need to be watched for sub-tropical development .. the reason why is because much like our current system, this second one will also be moving in the same direction as the overall wind shear vector .. this leads to a overall very low net wind shear value and thus favorable conditions over it .. the low pressure system for late next week has the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and squally weather across a large part of south Florida and across parts of central Florida on Thursday and Friday of next week ..
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bottom line - so this will be something to keep an eye on ..
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2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names
Alberto .. Beryl .. Chris .. Debby .. Ernesto .. Florence .. Gordon .. Helene .. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk .. Leslie .. Michael .. Nadine .. Oscar ..
Patty .. Rafael .. Sara .. Tony .. Valerie ..William
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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