x
 
 
 
Marv's Weather Service
Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
TC
click on above for larger size
TC
click on above for larger size
TC
click on above for larger size
TC
click on above for larger size
credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

Subscribe - Buoy Weather      Subscribe - Tropical Weather       Subscribe - both Buoy and Tropical reports

.
Tropical Weather Update
2019-09-16 as of 11:00 am
.
areas of interest ..
Tropical Storm Humberto - continues to strengthen and may be a threat to Bermuda on Thursday ..
and ..
Invest 97-L - should move north of the Lesser Antilles this weekend .. tropical disturbances to the east of Invest 97-L ..
and ..
western Gulf of Mexico - a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico is being watched too ..
.
Tropical Storm Humberto
11:00 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics
Location: 29.7 North Latitude, 77.3 West Longitude or about 760 miles to the west of Bermuda
Maximum Winds: 85 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 Millibars or 28.94 Inches
Forward Movement: Northeast at a forward speed of 5 mph ..
.
Tropical Storm Humberto - has strengthened over the past 24 hours and it is a hurricane. Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the center of the hurricane is embedded within an area of deep thunderstorm activity and all indications are that Humberto will continue to strengthen over the next couple of days potentially peaking at 115 to 125 mph by around Wednesday ..
.
at this time - Humberto is currently being steered to the northeast by a ridge of high pressure that is located to its southeast .. the forecast track of Humberto from today through about Wednesday or so is pretty straight forward as the hurricane will be steered to the northeast and east-northeast by a trough of low pressure located over the western Atlantic ..
.
looking ahead - as we get into later this week into the weekend, the forecast track of Humberto becomes more uncertain as the hurricane may be pulled in several different directions by a few different competing weather features .. while a trough of low pressure still located over the western Atlantic will still try to pull Humberto to the east-northeast, a ridge of high pressure building into New England may try to pull Humberto back to the north and northwest .. these two competing weather systems could very well cause Humberto to stall out and meander around well southeast of New England and Atlantic Canada late this week into this weekend ..
.
looking way ahead - it should be noted that if Humberto does turn to the north and northwest late this week, it is unlikely that it will travel far enough in that direction to significantly threaten or impact Atlantic Canada or New England .. it is something that we will be keeping an eye on ..
.
Bermuda - should continue to closely monitor the progress of Humberto and be aware that tropical storm and even hurricane conditions are quite possible on Thursday .. thus  while Humberto is unlikely to significant impact the US East Coast and Atlantic Canada in terms of rain and strong winds, the hurricane will produce powerful long-period ocean swells .. these swells will lead to a significant rip current danger along the entire US East Coast from Florida to Maine this week right into the weekend .. in addition, some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion is possible at the time of high tide this week ..
.
.

.

Invest 97-L - an area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center, is located about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Satellite imagery indicates that Invest 97-L is becoming better organized with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity noted .. a low pressure system has formed within the area of disturbed weather and that low pressure center is gradually becoming better defined ..

.

at this time - analysis of environmental conditions around Invest 97-L indicates that the environmental conditions will be favorable for development and strengthening throughout this week .. this means that we think itís likely that Invest 97-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm over the next 2 to 3 days or so ..

.

northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico - should keep a close eye on the progress and development of Invest 97-L .. we think itís likely that this system will pass to the north of the Leeward Islands on Saturday, but itís a good idea to keep an eye on this system just in case ..

.

.

.

east of Invest 97-L - there are 3 other tropical disturbances that we are watching closely that are located to the east of Invest 97-L .. the first disturbance is located near the Cape Verde Islands, the second disturbance is located over western Africa and the third tropical disturbance is located over central Africa ..

.

at this time - there is the potential that at least one of these disturbances will not only develop into a tropical depression/tropical storm/hurricane, but also travel much further west in longitude than Invest 97-L .. the three tropical waves will encounter the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which should give them a boost of energy and help them develop ..

.

model guidance - right now is of no help .. this is not surprising since we are still very early in the game regarding the potential development or no development of these disturbances .. it should also be noted that the guidance has not been stellar at all with their forecasts of tropical cyclone development this season ..

GFS model - hints at the tropical disturbance over western Africa will be our problem child and forecasts it to be near the northern Leeward Islands late next week and then near the Bahamas and south Florida around October 1

European model - on the other hand, seems to be forecasting that the tropical disturbance still over central Africa will be the one to develop next week as it travels westward from the coast of Africa towards the Lesser Antilles ..

GFS ensemble guidance - is a little slower than its operational counterpart, but also has many members forecasting that tropical development will occur between the coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands next week ..

finally - we want to let you know that the model guidance may be currently under forecasting the amount of tropical activity that is about to occur across the Atlantic .. we have a very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that will push into the Atlantic late this week into next week .. we donít think that the model guidance has yet picked up on this, but probably will start doing so in a few days or so .. this means that what you see in the model guidance in terms of tropical development chances may be vastly underdone ..

.

 
.
Hurricane Dorian - letís not forget the Bahamas ..
the Bahamas needs your help .. please respect their wishes and help in the ways they have requested .. see links below ..
Bahamas Red Cross Society ..
https://bahamasredcross.org/bahamas-red-cross-society-hurricane-dorian-assitance-helpushelp/
Bahamas official Hurricane Relief page ..
https://www.bahamas.com/hurricane-relief
Association of Bahamas Marinas ..
https://twitter.com/BahamasMarinas/status/1168913362853552129
note - additional suggestions and links to reputable relief organizations are welcome ..
.
.
TC
.
.
TC
.
.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
.
   
for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
contact us
areas of coverage
Marv's tropical weather reports
Marv's Weather Service - home page
disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

twr