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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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2019-02-22 - Tropical Weather Update - only 100 days until our Tropical Weather Season - with today's report we are again taking an early look at the 2019 Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico hurricane season ..
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2019 hurricane season - we know we are not even into February yet, but we are always looking at the different parameters and signals that go into making a Hurricane Season inactive or active .. this is what we are seeing as of right now ..
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at this time - the overall forecast continues to be a very difficult one as it hinges on whether we will have El Nino conditions persist through much of this year or whether we will be headed towards neutral ENSO conditions this Summer and Autumn .. also as usual, how warm the ocean temperatures are and how strong the overall shear is will dictate activity levels in 2019 ..
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ENSO conditions - we are currently in weak El Nino conditions and probably will remain in at least weak El Nino conditions into Spring .. looking at the summer of 2019, the ENSO model guidance are split between calling for a very weak El Nino and calling for neutral ENSO conditions .. the ECMWF nino forecast, which is typically too warm in their forecasts, are calling for neutral ENSO conditions this Summer .. this could be a problem as this could very well mean yet another above average season for tropical activity ..
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looking ahead - with all of that said, ENSO forecasts this time of year can be highly inaccurate as has been demonstrated the last couple of years ..
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ocean water temperatures across the Atlantic Basin - temperatures across much of the Atlantic Basin has actually warmed since mid-December and in fact the eastern Atlantic is now above average .. this temperature profile of overall above average ocean water temperatures is something that will need to be watched .. if we see this warming continue across the Main Development Region like we saw during 2017 and 2018, then a busy to very busy season could be in the offing ..
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at this time - the model guidance are split with the CFS model forecasting above average ocean water temperatures everywhere across the Atlantic by Summer, 2019 while the CanSIPS model is forecasting near average and even a little below average ocean water temperatures from the Caribbean eastward to the coast of Africa ..
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wind shear forecasts - the CFS model continues to forecast that areas along and below 20 North Latitude may see above average wind shear during much of the Hurricane Season with below average wind shear north of 20 North Latitude .. the CanSIPS climate model continues to show a more favorable environment for tropical development during August, September and October, especially across the Gulf of Mexico and near the East coast of the United States ..
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bottom line - the forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues to be a very difficult and uncertain one .. there are a few reasons for this ..
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first reason - is the overall uncertainty as to whether we will have neutral ENSO conditions or have a El Nino continue through the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
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second reason - is the extremely long range forecasts for higher than average wind shear as compared to 2018 .. if we do see these types of above average shear conditions, it could lead to less storms this year .. should the more favorable wind shear condition guidance verify correctly, then a much more active season could occur ..
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third reason - is the overall warming of ocean water temperatures in the middle of winter .. this is troubling because if we see these above average ocean water temperatures continue, it could lead to an active season in terms of number of storms ..
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bottom bottom line - we think that we could see the following for the 2019 Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Hurricane Season ..
10 Named Storms - 5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 2 of those of hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes .. the reason why we continue to forecast relatively low numbers is because of the uncertainty as to how the various parameters will play out in making it an active or inactive season .. if we do end up seeing neutral ENSO conditions combine with above average ocean water temperatures and lower than average wind shear, then we could see much higher numbers than what we are currently forecasting ..
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- even though the forecast number of storms gives you an idea to how active the Atlantic might look, the much more important part of the forecast is which areas may be at risk during the 2019 Hurricane Season ..
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- given that wind shear values may be above average along and below 20 North Latitude this coming Hurricane Season, the Caribbean and the region from the Lesser Antilles to the coast of Africa may end up being quieter than average ..
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- much of the tropical development could end up occurring in the region north of 20 North Latitude and west of 60 West Longitude .. this would potentially put Bermuda, the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast at risk from any tropical storms and hurricanes in 2019 .. we also think that the Gulf of Mexico could be at particular risk again in 2019 from any tropical storms and hurricanes ..
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looking ahead - we will continue to monitor the various model guidance members and long range signals for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season throughout the next 4 months and will have updates for you as conditions warrant ..
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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