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Marv's Weather
Service
Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
below are
links to their websites
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.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
2018-05-19- Tropical Weather
Update
- with this report we are
looking again at the Gulf of
Mexico for chances
of tropical development and
RAIN ..
.
.
Gulf of Mexico
- it still looks like we may see
tropical development in the
northwestern Caribbean as we get
into the middle and later parts
of next week .. any tropical
system that does form in the
northwestern Caribbean is
currently forecast to move into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico next
weekend .. this type of track
would bring even more heavy
rainfall and flooding to the
Florida Peninsula next weekend
along with the possibility of
severe weather and tropical
storm conditions ..
.
model guidance
-
all of the major global model
guidance are in agreement in
showing tropical development in
the northwestern Caribbean
between Wednesday and Friday of
next week .. what the guidance
are not in agreement with right
is the potential track of this
system as they all show very
different possible tracks ..
.
GFS and the GFS ensemble
guidance
- show a more easterly track
taking this system across
southeastern Florida and near
the coast of eastern Florida
next weekend .. this appears to
be a bias with the GFS model and
I suspect we will see a more
westerly track than what these
models show ..
.
Canadian model guidance
- is much quicker in its
forecast track and shows a track
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
by Friday followed by a track
into the Big Bend area of
northwest Florida next Saturday
..
.
European model guidance
- is the furthest west and
weakest of the model suite and
shows a very broad low pressure
system to track northward into
the central Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday and Friday .. by next
weekend, the European model
guidance forecasts this system
to strengthen into a tropical
storm as it moves into the
northern Gulf of Mexico and into
southeastern Louisiana next
Monday ..
.
NAVGEM model
- is similar to the Canadian
model in that it shows a track
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
late next week followed by a
track across western and
northern Florida on Friday.
..
.
multi-model (GFS, Canadian and
European) ensemble
- tropical cyclone genesis
probability charts currently
forecast a 30-40 percent
chance for tropical development
in the northwestern Caribbean
during the middle part of next
week ..
.
bottom line
- we still think that we are
going to have to keep an eye on
the northwestern Caribbean for
tropical development between
Wednesday and Friday of next
week .. the convection that is
currently occurring from the
southwestern Caribbean northward
through Jamaica to central Cuba
is associated with a frontal
boundary along the eastern
United States .. we do think
that once this frontal system
pulls away early next week, it
will leave behind a piece of
energy over the western
Caribbean .. at the same time, a
tropical wave currently located
to the east of the southern
Lesser Antilles between 50 and
55 West Longitude will push
westward over the next several
days reaching the western
Caribbean by about the middle of
next week .. that looks to occur
is that the combination of the
piece of energy being left
behind and this westward moving
tropical wave will potentially
set off tropical development in
the northwestern Caribbean
during the middle and later
parts of next week ..
.
looking ahead
- the very strong wind shear
that is currently present across
the entire Caribbean is forecast
to decrease somewhat next week
as the ribbon of strong wind
shear lifts northward and is
replaced by a upper level high
pressure ridge .. we think that
the environmental conditions
will be favorable enough to
allow for tropical development
to occur over the northwestern
Caribbean .. with that said, the
environmental conditions will
not be at all optimal, so we're
probably going to be looking at
a very messy, east weighted
tropical system ..
.
also
- another factor that favors
tropical development is that the
upward motion pulse of the
Madden Julian Oscillation will
be placed right over the western
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
throughout next week .. this
should promote the development
of widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity from the
western Caribbean into the Gulf
of Mexico and also will assist
in this potential tropical
development ..
.
at this time
- we still think that there is
about a 20 percent chance for
tropical development in the
northwestern Caribbean between
Wednesday and Friday of next
week .. the reason why we are
not tacking on a higher chance
for development is for a couple
of reasons ..
the first
reason - is that the
environmental conditions are
forecast to be just be favorable
enough for development and any
changes in this will mean that
conditions will be unfavorable
and tropical development will
not occur ..
the second reason
- is that while sea surface
temperatures are sufficiently
warm enough for tropical
development over the
northwestern Caribbean, analysis
indicates that sea surface
temperatures over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico are not warm
enough to support development ..
this means that anything that
tries to form in the
northwestern Caribbean may not
maintain itself as it pushes
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
..
.
bottom bottom line
- we think that we will see a
track that brings a potential
tropical storm from the
northwestern Caribbean on
Wednesday into Thursday through
the eastern Gulf of Mexico just
barely offshore of the west
coast of Florida around Friday
of next week .. this potential
tropical storm we think, may
make landfall in the eastern
Florida Panhandle or the Big
Bend area of northwestern
Florida sometime next weekend ..
this is a favored storm track
this time of year and based on
all of the latest data, it is
the type of track that seems
most possible right now ..
.
very messy tropical cyclone
- and heavy rainfall and
flooding will be the main threat
with this system .. the entire
Florida Peninsula will likely
see another round of very heavy
rainfall and flooding late next
week through next weekend ..
given that conditions are
already very wet across the
Florida Peninsula, heavy
rainfall connected to a tropical
cyclone could bring some
significant to major flooding
across a large part of the
Florida Peninsula during the
Memorial Day Holiday weekend ..
in addition, severe weather and
tornadoes is also a potential
concern across a large part of
the Florida Peninsula next
weekend .. in addition to this
there will be heavy rainfall and
storminess starting in the
southwestern Caribbean this
weekend and spreading into the
northwestern Caribbean next week
.. this heavy rainfall and
storminess is expected to impact
much of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula ..
.
2018 Atlantic Tropical
Cyclone Names ..
Alberto .. Beryl
.. Chris ..
Debby
.. Ernesto ..
Florence
.. Gordon .. Helene
.. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk ..
Leslie ..
Michael
.. Nadine .. Oscar
.. Patty .. Rafael
.. Sara .. Tony ..
Valerie ..William
.
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.
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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