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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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.
2018-12-16 - Tropical Weather
Update
- with today's report we are
taking an early look
at the
2019 Atlantic, Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico hurricane
season
.. in one word
El Nino
..
.
2019 Atlantic, Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico Hurricane
Season -
we know it's early, but we
wanted to go over what we are
already looking at in terms of
signals for the 2019 Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Bottom line is
that the forecast is a very
difficult one as it hinges
heavily on whether we will still
be in El Nino conditions or
whether we will be headed
towards neutral ENSO conditions.
Also, as usual, how warm the
ocean temperatures are and how
strong the overall shear is will
dictate activity levels in 2019
..
.
ENSO conditions
- we are currently in weak El
Nino conditions and probably
will remain in at least weak El
Nino conditions throughout this
winter into the Spring of 2019
.. turning towards Summer of
2019, the ENSO model guidance
are split between calling for a
weak El Nino and calling for
neutral ENSO conditions .. if we
do see El Nino conditions
persist through much of the 2019
Hurricane season, it could mean
a inactive season in terms of
numbers .. on the other hand,
should we see neutral ENSO
conditions during the 2019
Hurricane season, it could mean
a very active season in terms of
the number of storms that form
..
.
bottom line
- at this time of the year ENSO
forecasts can be highly
inaccurate as has been
demonstrated the last couple of
years ..
.
ocean water temperatures across
the Atlantic basin
- temperatures across the
Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, in
the Bahamas and off of the
southeast US coast are above
average .. meanwhile, ocean
water temperatures across the
central and eastern Atlantic
between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles are
currently below average ..
should we see this type of
temperature structure persist
into the 2019 hurricane season,
it could lead to a less active
season than 2017 and 2018 .. if
we see significant warming
across the Main Development
Region like we saw during
summers of 2017 and 2018, then a
busy to very busy season could
be in the offing .. at this time
the model guidance are split
with the CFS model forecasting
above average ocean water
temperatures everywhere across
the Atlantic by Summer 2019
while the CanSIPS model is
forecasting near average and
even below average ocean water
temperatures from the Caribbean
eastward to the coast of Africa
..
.
CFS model
- is indicating that there could
be above average wind shear
conditions across a large part
of the Atlantic during June and
July and near average to
slightly below average wind
shear conditions across the
northwestern Caribbean and the
Gulf of Mexico during August and
September of 2019 .. it should
be noted that the CanSIPS
climate model is forecasting a
slightly more favorable
environment for tropical
development during August and
September, especially across the
Gulf of Mexico and near the
southeastern coast of the United
States ..
.
bottom line
- the forecast for the 2019
Atlantic Hurricane Season looks
to be a very difficult and
uncertain one .. the reason for
this is due to the uncertainty
as to whether we will have El
Nino conditions persist through
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane
Season .. and the forecasts for
higher than average wind shear
as compared to 2018 is likely
due to the fact these models are
forecasting El Nino conditions
.. should we see El Nino
conditions transition into
neutral ENSO conditions, then we
think that a more favorable
environment for development
could be in the offing ..
.
bottom bottom line
- we think that we could see the
following for the 2019 Atlantic,
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
Hurricane Season ..
10 Named Storms
5 of those storms becoming
Hurricanes
and 2 of those of hurricanes
becoming Major Hurricanes ..
the reason for the relatively
low numbers is because it would
not surprise us to see El Nino
conditions persist and combine
with a less than favorable sea
surface temperature and wind
shear profile .. if we do end up
seeing neutral ENSO conditions
combine with much more favorable
conditions, then we could see
higher numbers than what we are
currently forecasting ..
.
even though the forecast number
of storms gives you an idea to
how active the Atlantic might
look, the much more important
part of the forecast is which
areas may be at risk during the
2019 Hurricane Season ..
.
given that ocean water
temperatures between the coast
of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles may be below average or
even near average with the
possibility of higher than
average wind shear .. we think
this part of the Atlantic may
end up being quieter than
average .. much of the tropical
development could end up
occurring in the region north of
20 North Latitude and west of 50
West Longitude .. this would
potentially put Bermuda, the
Bahamas and the US Southeast
Coast at risk from any tropical
storms and hurricanes in 2019 ..
we also think that the Gulf of
Mexico could be at particular
risk again in 2019 from any
tropical storms and hurricanes
..
.
for sure
- we will be monitoring the
various model guidance members
and long range signals for the
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
throughout the next 6 months and
will have updates for you as
conditions warrant ..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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