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Marv's Weather Service
Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
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above - Tropical Mess area
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above - Tropical mess yuck !
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Western Atlantic activity
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above -
credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA
below are links to their websites
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2017-11-18 - Tropical Weather Update .. today we are taking a good look at the southwestern Caribbean .. looks like two rain makers are developing ..
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Caribbean - we are closely watching two potential systems that will require close monitoring over the next week or so ..
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first system - an area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern and central Caribbean - is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that stretches from the southwestern Caribbean northeastward to Hispaniola and near the Turks and Caicos Islands .. in addition, weather analysis indicates that an area of low pressure may be trying to form near the northwestern coast of Colombia .. the environmental conditions aren't very favorable for development due to strong wind shear over the central and northern Caribbean, but there is an area of 10 to 20 knots of wind shear in the area where the low pressure may be forming over the far southwestern Caribbean ..
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bottom line - we will need to keep a close eye on the low pressure system that is expected to move very slowly northward from the southwestern Caribbean this weekend to the central Caribbean just east of Jamaica by early next week .. by the middle and end of next week, it appears that this low pressure system may become entrained and possibly absorbed by a eastward moving upper level trough of low pressure and our focus may then shift to another low pressure system that could form over the Gulf of Mexico late next week into next weekend ..
we think the development chances of the southwestern Caribbean low pressure system are around 20-30 percent this weekend into very early next week ..
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bottom bottom line - even if we see no development from this area of disturbed weather, heavy rainfall is a possibility from today through this weekend into early next week across northwestern Colombia, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Rainfall amounts over the next few days will average between 2 and 4 inches .. for the northern Leeward Islands, significant rainfall is not expected from this weather system ..
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second system - a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico - this low pressure system has the potential to move east-northeast and northeastward reaching the Florida Panhandle and north Florida around next Saturday ..
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bottom line - this potential low pressure system late next week and next weekend could bring multiple weather hazards, including strong winds and rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico and severe weather across the Florida Peninsula ..
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marine hazards - Gulf Of Mexico Wednesday To Friday Of Next Week - gale force winds of up to 45 knots and seas of up to 10-12 feet are forecast to impact the western and northern Gulf of Mexico starting on Wednesday and continue through Thursday of next week .. these gale force winds and rough seas will spread into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during next Thursday night and next Friday ..
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possible severe weather - Florida Peninsula Next Weekend - depending on the exact track of this low pressure system, some severe weather is possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout Saturday and Sunday of next weekend .. a further south track that takes the low pressure system over central Florida would lead to the severe weather being confined across south Florida and the Florida Keys next weekend .. on the other hand, a further north track across north Florida and the Florida Panhandle would mean the severe weather would occur across central and north Florida ..
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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