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Marv's Weather Service
Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Update
2019-10-28 as of 09:00 am
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areas of interest ..
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southern Gulf of Mexico - tropical disturbance is being watched ..
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southern Gulf of Mexico - an area of disturbed weather over the southern Gulf of Mexico is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity .. weather analysis reveals that there is at least a mid and upper-level low pressure system that is connected to a tropical wave .. additional analysis also indicates that wind shear values over this area of disturbed weather are quite low with values of 5 to 15 knots occurring ..
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at this time - even though the environmental conditions are favorable for development of this tropical disturbance, none of the model guidance and this includes the higher resolution guidance shows any sort of tropical development from this system .. the reason for the lack of development may have to do with a combination of the quick forward speed this disturbance will be moving at and increasing wind shear values in the northern Gulf of Mexico .. even without any sort of tropical development, the energy and moisture from this tropical disturbance will come ashore along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday .. this means that more heavy rainfall is expected starting on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle. Unlike with Olga, this disturbance will not bring strong winds with it ..
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looking ahead - a cold front is expected to sweep across the entire Gulf Coast from west to east late Wednesday night through Thursday bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with wind gusts of up to 35 to 45 mph on the backside of the front .. none of the model guidance are forecasting tropical development .. we will definitely going to be keeping a close eye on this tropical disturbance, in case it tries to strengthen into a tropical system between today and Wednesday ..
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
contact us
areas of coverage
Marv's tropical weather reports
Marv's Weather Service - home page
disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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