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Marv's Tropical
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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.
2021-06-12 - Tropical
Weather Update -
at this time we are watching
the ..
.
western Gulf of Mexico
- where there is an increasing
chance for tropical development
by the middle of next
week
..
.
and ..
.
coast of Africa
- the tropical disturbances
moving off of the coast of
Africa ..
.
bottom line
- we think that we will see the
tropical disturbance that is now
located over the eastern Pacific
reach the Bay of Campeche by
about Monday with the potential
of it becoming a tropical
depression by about Wednesday as
it heads slowly northward across
the western Gulf of Mexico ..
.
heads up
- check our buoy reports
in your area for wind speed and
wave heights .. if you are not
getting our buoy weather reports
sign up NOW ..
click here ..
..
.
see details below
..
.
.
western Gulf of Mexico -
the chances for a tropical
system to form (probably a
tropical storm) in the western
Gulf of Mexico by about the
middle part of next week are
increasing ..
.
at this time
- satellite imagery and weather
analysis indicates that there
are two areas to watch right now
.. the first is an area of
shower and thunderstorm activity
that is occurring over the Bay
of Campeche and the second is an
area of disturbed weather that
is located over the far eastern
Pacific .. it is the area of
disturbed weather that’s
now located over the far eastern
Pacific that will move northward
and consolidate with the area of
showers and thunderstorms in the
Bay of Campeche by about Monday
or Tuesday .. development into a
tropical depression and then a
tropical storm seems likely by
about the middle part of next
week as this system slowly moves
northward across the western
Gulf of Mexico ..
.
looking ahead
- analysis of environmental
conditions indicates that wind
shear values are currently too
strong across the Gulf of Mexico
to support tropical development
.. further to the south,
however, it appears that wind
shear values are favorable
across the eastern Pacific and
these favorable wind shear
conditions should gradually move
northward into the Bay of
Campeche at the same time that
disturbance moves into the Bay
of Campeche from the eastern
Pacific during the first half of
next week .. this means that the
environmental conditions should
be favorable to support tropical
development in the Bay of
Campeche and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico during the early
and middle parts of next week ..
.
UFFDA
- we want to emphasize that this
is likely to be a very
slow-moving system that packs a
lot of moisture with it .. this
is a serious concern of mine and
it is something that I will be
watching extremely closely ..
the reason why is because the
combination of the slow moving
system that has a lot of
moisture could mean a lot of
rainfall for some parts of the
western and especially the
northern Gulf Coast later next
week and next weekend ..
.
model guidance
-
all of the operational models
and their ensemble counterparts
continue to insist that tropical
development will probably occur
by the middle part of next week
in the western Gulf of Mexico ..
the individual models just
differ on their track forecasts
..
.
GFS model
- continues to insist that this
system will head for
southeastern Louisiana as a
tropical storm by next Saturday
with the heaviest rain and
gustiest winds found across
southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, the Florida Panhandle
and southern Georgia next
weekend .. a majority of the GFS
ensemble members are further
west and show a track towards
the upper Texas coast and
southern Louisiana next Saturday
..
.
Canadian model and the European
model
- on the other hand, forecasts a
track to the far upper Texas
coast and the coast of
southwestern Louisiana by next
Saturday with extremely heavy
rain and gusty winds found to
the east from southeastern
Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle next weekend ..
.
bottom line
- we think that we will see the
tropical disturbance that is now
located over the eastern Pacific
reach the Bay of Campeche by
about Monday with the potential
of it becoming a tropical
depression by about Wednesday as
it heads slowly northward across
the western Gulf of Mexico ..
.
environmental conditions
- may be favorable across the
Bay of Campeche and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico from
Monday to about Thursday,
increasing southwesterly wind
shear could lead to this system
becoming east-weighted storm by
late next week into next weekend
.. meaning most of the squally
weather and heavy rain will
occur on the eastern side of
this system .. this means that
areas from southeastern
Louisiana eastward to the
Florida Panhandle could see the
heaviest rainfall amounts from
this system ..
.
possible intensity -
as of right now we think that
this system will become a
tropical depression by about
Wednesday over the Bay of
Campeche and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico .. from there,
this system will probably become
a tropical storm by late next
week as it continues to head
northward into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico reaching the far
upper Texas coast or the
southwestern and south-central
coast of Louisiana by next
Saturday as a tropical storm
with 45-60 mph winds ..
.
possible impacts -
we think that this could be a
east-weighted system and thus
most of the squalls and heavy
rainfall may occur to the east
of where this system comes
ashore .. based on this, squally
weather with heavy rainfall and
the potential for flash flooding
could occur across southeastern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, much of the
Florida Panhandle and parts of
southwestern Georgia from late
next week through next weekend
.. given the very wet weather
parts of southern and
southeastern Louisiana and
southern Mississippi have
experienced over the last 30
days, this additional possible
rainfall could be a HUGE concern
for late next week and next
weekend .. this is something
that will need to be watched
extremely closely ..
.
.
coast of Africa –
the tropical disturbances moving
off of the coast of Africa
continue to be rather robust for
this time of year .. with that
said, development is not
expected due to unfavorable
conditions for now .. the
strength and resiliency of these
disturbances make me think that
we could see some tropical
development in the far eastern
or central Tropical Atlantic by
late this month or in early July
.. this sort of development
would be early for this time of
year, but it is not unheard of
.. in fact, the latest GFS model
does show tropical development
occurring in the far eastern
Tropical Atlantic at the end of
June .. this is something that I
will be keeping an eye on and
will keep you all updated ..
.
note
- the next tropical weather
discussion will be issued on
Sunday ..
.
.
heads up
- check our buoy reports in
your area for wind speed and
wave heights .. if you are
not getting our buoy weather
reports sign up now ..
click here ..
..
.
.
.
.
2010s Hurricane Seasons (decade-in-review)
and Predictions for 2020s
by
- Dr. Ryan Truchelut -
WeatherTiger
edited by
- Marv Market - Marv’s Weather
Service
.
.
decade-in-review
- December 1st marks not only
the official conclusion of the
2019 hurricane season, but the
final month of another decade we
failed to name before it ends. A
decade in which cell phones
became just phones, more
Millennials visited Iceland than
Sears, and politely declining to
join your co-worker Janet’s
essential oils MLM became
increasingly difficult.
The 2010s were a decade of
contrasts for Atlantic
hurricanes. Despite darkest
timeline storms like Sandy,
Irma, and Michael, it was an era
of remarkable luck for the
continental U.S. coast.
Cumulative Atlantic tropical
cyclone activity in the 2010s
tallied 20% above long-term
norms, but there were only three
U.S. major hurricane
landfalls—around half of
average.
Tropical activity is chunky due
to oceanic and atmospheric
memory, and the 2010s divide
cleanly into three heftychonks.
First, the Sriracha Era of
2010-2012 saw spicy open ocean
activity but few landfalls;
second, the 2013-15 Cronut Era
fused low activity and few
impacts; finally, the Tide Pod
Era of 2016-2019 brought
nausea-inducing elevated
activity and repeated U.S.
threats. Read on for a recap of
each season and our reflections
on the 2020s.
.
2010
The distant past in which a
shave and a haircut cost two
bitcoins had one of the lowest
ratios of U.S. landfalls to
storm activity. Despite 19 named
storms, tied for third-highest,
and five major hurricanes, only
two tropical storms and a
spectacular double rainbow
affected the continental U.S. in
2010. Category 4 Hurricane Earl
menaced the Northeast, but
ultimately remained well
offshore.
.
2011
The 2011 hurricane season was
forgettable despite 19 tropical
storms. The exception was
Hurricane Irene, which made
landfall as a category 1 in the
Outer Banks and rocketed
north-northeast over New York
City as a tropical storm,
causing $16 billion in water
damage. These impacts were
exacerbated by Tropical Storm
Lee, which caused flooding in
Louisiana and the besodden East
Coast. Also, beneath its façade
of radical indifference, with
the perspective of time, it’s
safe to say honey badger
secretly cares a lot.
.
2012
The 2012 hurricane season’s 19
storms and 10 hurricanes again
mostly stayed out to sea, other
than Louisiana’s category 1
Isaac, and generational freak
storm Sandy. While Sandy became
a non-tropical low prior to
reaching shore, gales across a
1,000 mile diameter broke
records for single-storm wind
energy, sent surge up to 12’
into the Northeast, and flooded
much of New York City.
Sandy was responsible for over
230 deaths and $70 billion in
damages, slotting it temporarily
as the second-costliest U.S.
hurricane. As testament to
Sandy’s bizarre co-mingling of
tropical and mid-latitude
weather, its remnants caused
feet of snow in Appalachia, and
allowed Taylor Swift to purchase
Manhattan from panicked natives
for $476 in Red tour merch.
.
2013
The 2013 season was more
incompetent than the deaf
interpreter at Nelson Mandela’s
funeral, tallying less than a
third of normal activity. Two
hurricanes formed, fewest since
1950, and one tropical storm
made U.S. landfall.
.
2014
The 2014 season couldn’t even
with a powerful El Niño,
though six hurricanes managed to
awkwardly dab their way to net
activity about two-thirds of
normal. Eastern North Carolina
shrugged off category 2 Arthur
in early July.
.
2015
The El Niño-hurricane
feud continued, eclipsing even
the vicious Taylor Swift-Sarah
Koenig spat chronicled in “Bad
Blood [Best Buy Payphone
Remix].” The result was another
season at 60% of normal and two
early season U.S. tropical
storms. Joaquin became a
category 4 over the Bahamas, but
after some intrigue absconded
well offshore.
.
2016
To this point, the continental
U.S. had been enjoying a
historically calm decade, with
no major landfalls (or any
Florida hurricanes) since 2005.
Unfortunately, starting in 2016,
a Zillennial generation of
hurricanes broke out of the
Atlantic’s meteorological escape
room and headed for shore
wreathed in clouds of cotton
candy e-vapes.
Mean reversion was unkind to
Florida, where category 1
Hermine snapped an eleven-year
drought and caused outsized wind
damage in the Panhandle. The
marquee storm of 2016 was
Matthew, which attained category
5 status in the Caribbean,
hooked erratically north then
west, scraped 30 miles off the
Florida East Coast as a major
hurricane, and weakened
dramatically before landfall in
South Carolina. Over $10 billion
in damage occurred with this
closest of calls.
Overall, 2016 notched 140% of
typical hurricane activity, with
storms clustering over Florida
and the Southeast. The worst was
yet to come.
.
2017
This Fyre Festival of a year is
the most destructive season on
record. Not only did six major
hurricanes catapult activity to
225% of normal, there were six
landfalls on the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Of these, Harvey and Irma
became the second- and
third-costliest continental U.S.
storms.
Category 4 Harvey’s landfall in
central Texas in August began an
incredible five-week run of
catastrophic hurricanes. Harvey
did significant wind damage, but
its most devastating impacts
were biblical floods that
overwhelmed the Houston metro
area as the storm stalled for
the next five days. Rainfall
totals over 60” resulted in the
loss of over 100 lives and
damages estimated at $125
billion.
Yet, Harvey has competition for
worst hurricane of 2017.
Hurricane Irma generated more
wind energy than the entire 2013
or 2015 seasons, shattered
records for Category 5
longevity, and terrorized
Florida for a week. Land
interaction with Cuba clipped
Irma’s wings on final approach,
and the hurricane sliced through
the Keys as a category 4 before
striking Southwest Florida with
130 mph gusts and riding up the
peninsula. Irma’s toll of over
130 deaths and $78 billion in
destruction could have been yet
worse.
Completing 2017’s fearsome
triad, Hurricane Maria ravaged
Puerto Rico at category 4
intensity in late September, the
strongest landfall there in 80
years. Otherwise, category 1
Nate was a relatively harmless
cool-down for the Gulf Coast. A
brutal year with far-reaching
implications for emergency
management and civic planning,
2017 was the worst season of
2010s, other than the last
season of Dexter.
.
2018
Cool water in the Tropical
Atlantic pointed to a quiet
2018, but the season harnessed
Big Subtropical Energy to climb
25% above normal with two
epochal U.S. landfalls. A record
seven subtropical storms
occurred, and limited activity
in the Deep Tropics was offset
by intense storms between 20°
and 40°N.
Hurricane Florence epitomized
this, plowing west across the
unusually warm subtropical
Atlantic to strike North
Carolina. While Florence
weakened to a category 1 by
landfall, its glacial speed
unleashed rain totals up to 36”
on the Carolinas, causing over
50 deaths and $25 billion in
damages.
And then there was Michael.
There were only three category 5
U.S. landfalls prior to
Michael—none in October, none on
the Florida Gulf Coast. Its
four-day blitzkrieg of dizzying
intensification as it streaked
out of the Caribbean and across
the febrile eastern Gulf barely
allowed North Florida to prepare
for sustained winds to 160 mph
and surge to 16’. Michael
remained a category 3 with
observed gusts to 120 mph into
Georgia.
Hurricanes come and go, but
category 5s last for
generations. The numbers, nearly
60 U.S. deaths and a price tag
of $25 billion, do not
adequately describe the hellzone
in Michael’s wake.
.
2019
The 2019 season is a microcosm
of the 2010s: a White Claw
variety pack of tropical flavors
including staggering rapid
intensification, destructive
flooding, and a northeast shift
in where hurricanes developed
and intensified.
On one hand, brief storms were
plentiful. The weaker 80% of
this year’s 18 storms
cumulatively are responsible for
less than 20% of 2019’s total
wind energy. Climatologically,
that inequality is absurd, like
expecting the Joker to play by
society’s rules. Among these
weak storms was Hurricane Barry,
a poorly organized category 1
that reached Louisiana in
mid-July.
On the other, 2019 served up
twin category 5 monsters.
Lorenzo mercifully attained this
status in the open Atlantic,
well northeast of any known cat
5; Dorian cruelly expended more
wind energy in the Bahamas than
any other Atlantic hurricane had
over any landmass, ever.
A classic Cape Verde hurricane,
Dorian appeared poised to end
South Florida’s post-Wilma luck.
However, on approach to Abaco
Island, the already formidable
storm uncorked an insane rapid
intensification event that
launched its sustained winds to
185 mph, tied for the Atlantic’s
second-highest. Worse, Dorian
then stalled, lashing Grand
Bahama Island with winds
equivalent to an EF-4 tornado
for 24 hours, resulting in the
total destruction of many
communities. Floridians held
their breath as the compact
hurricane subsequently crawled
north just far enough offshore
to avoid major damage. Dorian
made landfall in North Carolina
as a category 1.
The dodged bullet of Dorian was
the only major U.S. threat in
2019, MoMo excepted. Tropical
Storm Imelda organized hours
before reaching land, but
another multi-day stall brought
rain totals over 40” and
billions in flood damage to
eastern Texas. Unfavorable Gulf
shear in October prevented
Nestor and Olga from making
landfall as tropical storms, and
net hurricane activity again
totaled 25% above normal.
.
Predictions for 2020s
-
We’ve
come a long way since 2010
(e.g., the friends kickin’ in
the backseat with Rebecca Black
have graduated pre-med programs
with crushing student loan
debt). What lessons can be drawn
from this bimodal decade of
immoderation, in which all
hurricane seasons tallied either
below 65% or over 120% of normal
activity?
Comparing the tracks of the
decade’s 72 hurricanes with
climatology reveals contrasting
regional anomalies. Much above
normal hurricane activity was
centered in the western Atlantic
east of Florida and the
Carolinas. The subtropical
central and eastern Atlantic
were also busy. The Main
Development Region west of
Africa was close to normal; the
Gulf and Caribbean each saw far
below typical hurricane
frequency.
The paucity of near-shore
hurricanes is reflected in U.S.
landfall count (13) registering
80% of normal, despite seven
active seasons of the decade’s
ten. Curiously, the Florida East
Coast evaded multiple scrapes
and finished with no hurricane
landfalls, against an expected
three.
bottom
line
- is if you’re in the Northeast
U.S., North Florida, Southwest
Florida, or Houston, your luck
was not ideal. Everyone else,
don’t
complain.
So, here’s some possibly
ill-advised predictions for the
2020s.
First
- the villain in Bee Movie 2
will be named Jeff Beezos, all
legacy media will merge with Joe
Rogan’s podcast, and global
warming will be solved by
mirroring the foot-thick layer
of abandoned e-scooters covering
Earth.
Second
-
look for the multitudes
contained in the 2019 hurricane
season—mind-boggling rapid
intensification, erratic stalls,
destructive flooding—to continue
to become more common in the
next decade.
Finally
- expect more May starts to
hurricane seasons, and for
favored regions of development
to keep expanding north.
bottom line
- Will the U.S. again be
disproportionately fortunate in
the 2020s ? .. we wouldn’t bet
on it. There’s no long-term
trend in continental U.S.
landfall energy, and the 2010s
show that provident streaks
often have violent ends. Shift
Matthew or Dorian 75 miles west
and we wouldn’t be talking about
South Florida’s good fortune.
Remember, hurricane seasons are
chunky.
looking ahead
- Let’s revisit these
predictions in December 2029. In
the meantime, see you next year
for the first hurricane season
of the 2020s .. here’s wishing
you a happy rest of the decade.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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