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for additional charts check out Mike's Weather .. https://spaghettimodels.com/

credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from

Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page and NOAA

2021-08-03 - Tropical Weather Update - with this report on we are again taking another look ahead at the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ..

Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico - things continue to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and no tropical development is expected throughout the rest of this week ..

heads up - check our buoy reports in your area for wind speed and wave heights .. if you are not getting our buoy weather reports sign up NOW .. click here to sign up ..

note - the next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday ..

additional details below ..

Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico - things continue to be quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and no tropical development is expected throughout the rest of this week ..

looking ahead - this weekend and especially next week and beyond, it appears that activity will very likely ramp up as has been expected .. backing up this forecast are the various model guidance members, which are gradually trending towards showing development within the next week or so ..

model guidance -

GFS model guidance forecast - is showing the possibility of some development from a tropical wave that is now located very near the west coast of Africa once it reaches the vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean around next Tuesday ..

Canadian and European model guidance - do not show outright development over the next 7-10 days, they do strongly hint that there are going to be at least 2 disturbances to really watch as they head westward from the coast of Africa ..

operational model guidance - seems too timid and quiet in terms of development, given that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is pushing into the Atlantic. At this point we think it’s best that we look at the ensemble model guidance for more clues on what could occur ..

GFS ensemble model guidance - indicates that at least one of the tropical waves now over the eastern Tropical Atlantic could make it into the southwestern North Atlantic somewhere between Bermuda and the Bahamas late next week ..

European ensemble model guidance - shows a couple of members forecasting that the tropical wave now over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic may make it into the area near the Bahamas late next week ..

bottom line model guidance - we think that we are seeing a bias in all of the model guidance in that they’ve been over forecasting eastern Pacific tropical development given that there is an intensifying La Nina now going on .. what seems to be gradually happening is that all of the model guidance are slowly trending towards forecasting less Eastern Pacific activity (which would be correct) and we think that we should probably see the guidance begin to forecast tropical development in the Atlantic in some of its future forecast runs .. interestingly the CFS model, which actually did very well last year in forecasting tropical development weeks in advance, is forecasting two tropical systems – one that passes near the northeastern Caribbean by about next Tuesday and then into the Bahamas and near the southeast US coast late next week & the second that stays well north of the Caribbean, but heads for Bermuda by about August 17 ..

bottom line - right now, the eastern Tropical Atlantic is still unfavorable for any sort of development due to an abundance of dry air .. this means that tropical development from the two tropical waves in the eastern Tropical Atlantic is not expected anytime soon .. yes it is possible that the energy and upward motion from the Madden Julian Oscillation could help to moisten up the atmosphere and lead to less dry air over the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic over the next week or so .. should this occur, it would mean that conditions may become more favorable for the tropical waves over the eastern Tropical Atlantic to develop as they near the northeastern Caribbean during the first half of next week and then possibly head for the area near the Bahamas later next week .. at this point it’s nothing to be overly concerned about, but it is something to definitely keep an eye on ..

heads up - check our buoy reports in your area for wind speed and wave heights .. if you are not getting our buoy weather reports sign up now .. click here ..

2010s Hurricane Seasons (decade-in-review) and Predictions for 2020s

by - Dr. Ryan Truchelut - WeatherTiger

edited by - Marv Market - Marv’s Weather Service

decade-in-review - December 1st marks not only the official conclusion of the 2019 hurricane season, but the final month of another decade we failed to name before it ends. A decade in which cell phones became just phones, more Millennials visited Iceland than Sears, and politely declining to join your co-worker Janet’s essential oils MLM became increasingly difficult.

The 2010s were a decade of contrasts for Atlantic hurricanes. Despite darkest timeline storms like Sandy, Irma, and Michael, it was an era of remarkable luck for the continental U.S. coast. Cumulative Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the 2010s tallied 20% above long-term norms, but there were only three U.S. major hurricane landfalls—around half of average.

Tropical activity is chunky due to oceanic and atmospheric memory, and the 2010s divide cleanly into three heftychonks. First, the Sriracha Era of 2010-2012 saw spicy open ocean activity but few landfalls; second, the 2013-15 Cronut Era fused low activity and few impacts; finally, the Tide Pod Era of 2016-2019 brought nausea-inducing elevated activity and repeated U.S. threats. Read on for a recap of each season and our reflections on the 2020s.

2010

The distant past in which a shave and a haircut cost two bitcoins had one of the lowest ratios of U.S. landfalls to storm activity. Despite 19 named storms, tied for third-highest, and five major hurricanes, only two tropical storms and a spectacular double rainbow affected the continental U.S. in 2010. Category 4 Hurricane Earl menaced the Northeast, but ultimately remained well offshore.

2011

The 2011 hurricane season was forgettable despite 19 tropical storms. The exception was Hurricane Irene, which made landfall as a category 1 in the Outer Banks and rocketed north-northeast over New York City as a tropical storm, causing $16 billion in water damage. These impacts were exacerbated by Tropical Storm Lee, which caused flooding in Louisiana and the besodden East Coast. Also, beneath its façade of radical indifference, with the perspective of time, it’s safe to say honey badger secretly cares a lot.

2012

The 2012 hurricane season’s 19 storms and 10 hurricanes again mostly stayed out to sea, other than Louisiana’s category 1 Isaac, and generational freak storm Sandy. While Sandy became a non-tropical low prior to reaching shore, gales across a 1,000 mile diameter broke records for single-storm wind energy, sent surge up to 12’ into the Northeast, and flooded much of New York City.

Sandy was responsible for over 230 deaths and $70 billion in damages, slotting it temporarily as the second-costliest U.S. hurricane. As testament to Sandy’s bizarre co-mingling of tropical and mid-latitude weather, its remnants caused feet of snow in Appalachia, and allowed Taylor Swift to purchase Manhattan from panicked natives for $476 in Red tour merch.

2013

The 2013 season was more incompetent than the deaf interpreter at Nelson Mandela’s funeral, tallying less than a third of normal activity. Two hurricanes formed, fewest since 1950, and one tropical storm made U.S. landfall.

2014

The 2014 season couldn’t even with a powerful El Niño, though six hurricanes managed to awkwardly dab their way to net activity about two-thirds of normal. Eastern North Carolina shrugged off category 2 Arthur in early July.

2015

The El Niño-hurricane feud continued, eclipsing even the vicious Taylor Swift-Sarah Koenig spat chronicled in “Bad Blood [Best Buy Payphone Remix].” The result was another season at 60% of normal and two early season U.S. tropical storms. Joaquin became a category 4 over the Bahamas, but after some intrigue absconded well offshore.

2016

To this point, the continental U.S. had been enjoying a historically calm decade, with no major landfalls (or any Florida hurricanes) since 2005. Unfortunately, starting in 2016, a Zillennial generation of hurricanes broke out of the Atlantic’s meteorological escape room and headed for shore wreathed in clouds of cotton candy e-vapes.

Mean reversion was unkind to Florida, where category 1 Hermine snapped an eleven-year drought and caused outsized wind damage in the Panhandle. The marquee storm of 2016 was Matthew, which attained category 5 status in the Caribbean, hooked erratically north then west, scraped 30 miles off the Florida East Coast as a major hurricane, and weakened dramatically before landfall in South Carolina. Over $10 billion in damage occurred with this closest of calls.

Overall, 2016 notched 140% of typical hurricane activity, with storms clustering over Florida and the Southeast. The worst was yet to come.

2017

This Fyre Festival of a year is the most destructive season on record. Not only did six major hurricanes catapult activity to 225% of normal, there were six landfalls on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Of these, Harvey and Irma became the second- and third-costliest continental U.S. storms.

Category 4 Harvey’s landfall in central Texas in August began an incredible five-week run of catastrophic hurricanes. Harvey did significant wind damage, but its most devastating impacts were biblical floods that overwhelmed the Houston metro area as the storm stalled for the next five days. Rainfall totals over 60” resulted in the loss of over 100 lives and damages estimated at $125 billion.

Yet, Harvey has competition for worst hurricane of 2017. Hurricane Irma generated more wind energy than the entire 2013 or 2015 seasons, shattered records for Category 5 longevity, and terrorized Florida for a week. Land interaction with Cuba clipped Irma’s wings on final approach, and the hurricane sliced through the Keys as a category 4 before striking Southwest Florida with 130 mph gusts and riding up the peninsula. Irma’s toll of over 130 deaths and $78 billion in destruction could have been yet worse.

Completing 2017’s fearsome triad, Hurricane Maria ravaged Puerto Rico at category 4 intensity in late September, the strongest landfall there in 80 years. Otherwise, category 1 Nate was a relatively harmless cool-down for the Gulf Coast. A brutal year with far-reaching implications for emergency management and civic planning, 2017 was the worst season of 2010s, other than the last season of Dexter.

2018

Cool water in the Tropical Atlantic pointed to a quiet 2018, but the season harnessed Big Subtropical Energy to climb 25% above normal with two epochal U.S. landfalls. A record seven subtropical storms occurred, and limited activity in the Deep Tropics was offset by intense storms between 20° and 40°N. Hurricane Florence epitomized this, plowing west across the unusually warm subtropical Atlantic to strike North Carolina. While Florence weakened to a category 1 by landfall, its glacial speed unleashed rain totals up to 36” on the Carolinas, causing over 50 deaths and $25 billion in damages.

And then there was Michael. There were only three category 5 U.S. landfalls prior to Michael—none in October, none on the Florida Gulf Coast. Its four-day blitzkrieg of dizzying intensification as it streaked out of the Caribbean and across the febrile eastern Gulf barely allowed North Florida to prepare for sustained winds to 160 mph and surge to 16’. Michael remained a category 3 with observed gusts to 120 mph into Georgia.

Hurricanes come and go, but category 5s last for generations. The numbers, nearly 60 U.S. deaths and a price tag of $25 billion, do not adequately describe the hellzone in Michael’s wake.

2019

The 2019 season is a microcosm of the 2010s: a White Claw variety pack of tropical flavors including staggering rapid intensification, destructive flooding, and a northeast shift in where hurricanes developed and intensified.

On one hand, brief storms were plentiful. The weaker 80% of this year’s 18 storms cumulatively are responsible for less than 20% of 2019’s total wind energy. Climatologically, that inequality is absurd, like expecting the Joker to play by society’s rules. Among these weak storms was Hurricane Barry, a poorly organized category 1 that reached Louisiana in mid-July.

On the other, 2019 served up twin category 5 monsters. Lorenzo mercifully attained this status in the open Atlantic, well northeast of any known cat 5; Dorian cruelly expended more wind energy in the Bahamas than any other Atlantic hurricane had over any landmass, ever.

A classic Cape Verde hurricane, Dorian appeared poised to end South Florida’s post-Wilma luck. However, on approach to Abaco Island, the already formidable storm uncorked an insane rapid intensification event that launched its sustained winds to 185 mph, tied for the Atlantic’s second-highest. Worse, Dorian then stalled, lashing Grand Bahama Island with winds equivalent to an EF-4 tornado for 24 hours, resulting in the total destruction of many communities. Floridians held their breath as the compact hurricane subsequently crawled north just far enough offshore to avoid major damage. Dorian made landfall in North Carolina as a category 1.

The dodged bullet of Dorian was the only major U.S. threat in 2019, MoMo excepted. Tropical Storm Imelda organized hours before reaching land, but another multi-day stall brought rain totals over 40” and billions in flood damage to eastern Texas. Unfavorable Gulf shear in October prevented Nestor and Olga from making landfall as tropical storms, and net hurricane activity again totaled 25% above normal.

Predictions for 2020s - We’ve come a long way since 2010 (e.g., the friends kickin’ in the backseat with Rebecca Black have graduated pre-med programs with crushing student loan debt). What lessons can be drawn from this bimodal decade of immoderation, in which all hurricane seasons tallied either below 65% or over 120% of normal activity?

Comparing the tracks of the decade’s 72 hurricanes with climatology reveals contrasting regional anomalies. Much above normal hurricane activity was centered in the western Atlantic east of Florida and the Carolinas. The subtropical central and eastern Atlantic were also busy. The Main Development Region west of Africa was close to normal; the Gulf and Caribbean each saw far below typical hurricane frequency.

The paucity of near-shore hurricanes is reflected in U.S. landfall count (13) registering 80% of normal, despite seven active seasons of the decade’s ten. Curiously, the Florida East Coast evaded multiple scrapes and finished with no hurricane landfalls, against an expected three.

bottom line - is if you’re in the Northeast U.S., North Florida, Southwest Florida, or Houston, your luck was not ideal. Everyone else, don’t complain.

So, here’s some possibly ill-advised predictions for the 2020s.

First - the villain in Bee Movie 2 will be named Jeff Beezos, all legacy media will merge with Joe Rogan’s podcast, and global warming will be solved by mirroring the foot-thick layer of abandoned e-scooters covering Earth.

Second - look for the multitudes contained in the 2019 hurricane season—mind-boggling rapid intensification, erratic stalls, destructive flooding—to continue to become more common in the next decade.

Finally - expect more May starts to hurricane seasons, and for favored regions of development to keep expanding north.

bottom line - Will the U.S. again be disproportionately fortunate in the 2020s ? .. we wouldn’t bet on it. There’s no long-term trend in continental U.S. landfall energy, and the 2010s show that provident streaks often have violent ends. Shift Matthew or Dorian 75 miles west and we wouldn’t be talking about South Florida’s good fortune. Remember, hurricane seasons are chunky.

looking ahead - Let’s revisit these predictions in December 2029. In the meantime, see you next year for the first hurricane season of the 2020s .. here’s wishing you a happy rest of the decade.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover ..

for more details check out

Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .

NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

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Marv's Weather Service - home page

disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

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