|
credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
|
.
Tropical Weather Update
2019-09-16 as of 11:00 am
.
areas of interest ..
Tropical Storm Humberto
- continues
to strengthen and may be a
threat to
Bermuda
on Thursday ..
and ..
Invest 97-L
- should move north of the
Lesser Antilles
this weekend
.. tropical disturbances
to the east of Invest 97-L ..
and ..
western
Gulf
of Mexico
- a tropical disturbance
in the western
Gulf
of Mexico is being watched too
..
.
Tropical Storm Humberto
11:00 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics
Location: 29.7 North Latitude,
77.3 West Longitude or about 760
miles to the west of Bermuda
Maximum Winds: 85 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 980
Millibars or 28.94 Inches
Forward Movement: Northeast at a
forward speed of 5 mph ..
.
Tropical Storm Humberto
- has strengthened over the past
24 hours and it is a hurricane.
Satellite imagery this morning
indicates that the center of the
hurricane is embedded within an
area of deep thunderstorm
activity and all indications are
that Humberto will continue to
strengthen over the next couple
of days potentially peaking at
115 to 125 mph by around
Wednesday ..
.
at this time
- Humberto is currently being
steered to the northeast by a
ridge of high pressure that is
located to its southeast .. the
forecast track of Humberto from
today through about Wednesday or
so is pretty straight forward as
the hurricane will be steered to
the northeast and east-northeast
by a trough of low pressure
located over the western
Atlantic ..
.
looking ahead
- as we get into later this week
into the weekend, the forecast
track of Humberto becomes more
uncertain as the hurricane may
be pulled in several different
directions by a few different
competing weather features ..
while a trough of low pressure
still located over the western
Atlantic will still try to pull
Humberto to the east-northeast,
a ridge of high pressure
building into New England may
try to pull Humberto back to the
north and northwest .. these two
competing weather systems could
very well cause Humberto to
stall out and meander around
well southeast of New England
and Atlantic Canada late this
week into this weekend ..
.
looking way ahead
- it should be noted that if
Humberto does turn to the north
and northwest late this week, it
is unlikely that it will travel
far enough in that direction to
significantly threaten or impact
Atlantic Canada or New England
.. it is something that we will
be keeping an eye on ..
.
Bermuda
- should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Humberto
and be aware that tropical storm
and even hurricane conditions
are quite possible on Thursday
.. thus while Humberto is
unlikely to significant impact
the US East Coast and Atlantic
Canada in terms of rain and
strong winds, the hurricane will
produce powerful long-period
ocean swells .. these swells
will lead to a significant rip
current danger along the entire
US East Coast from Florida to
Maine this week right into the
weekend .. in addition, some
minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion is possible at the time
of high tide this week ..
.
.
.
Invest 97-L
- an area of disturbed weather,
designated Invest 97-L by the
National Hurricane Center, is
located about halfway between the
coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. Satellite imagery
indicates that Invest 97-L is
becoming better organized with an
increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity noted .. a low pressure
system has formed within the area of
disturbed weather and that low
pressure center is gradually
becoming better defined ..
.
at this time
- analysis of environmental
conditions around Invest 97-L
indicates that the environmental
conditions will be favorable for
development and strengthening
throughout this week .. this means
that we think it’s likely that
Invest 97-L will become a tropical
depression and then a tropical storm
over the next 2 to 3 days or so ..
.
northern Leeward Islands and Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico -
should keep a close eye on the
progress and development of Invest
97-L .. we think it’s likely that
this system will pass to the north
of the Leeward Islands on Saturday,
but it’s a good idea to keep an eye
on this system just in case ..
.
.
.
east of Invest 97-L -
there are 3 other tropical
disturbances that we are watching
closely that are located to the east
of Invest 97-L .. the first
disturbance is located near the Cape
Verde Islands, the second
disturbance is located over western
Africa and the third tropical
disturbance is located over central
Africa ..
.
at this time
- there is the potential that at
least one of these disturbances will
not only develop into a tropical
depression/tropical storm/hurricane,
but also travel much further west in
longitude than Invest 97-L .. the
three tropical waves will encounter
the upward motion pulse of the
Madden Julian Oscillation, which
should give them a boost of energy
and help them develop ..
.
model guidance
- right now is of no help .. this is
not surprising since we are still
very early in the game regarding the
potential development or no
development of these disturbances ..
it should also be noted that the
guidance has not been stellar at all
with their forecasts of tropical
cyclone development this season ..
GFS model
- hints at the tropical disturbance
over western Africa will be our
problem child and forecasts it to be
near the northern Leeward Islands
late next week and then near the
Bahamas and south Florida around
October 1
European model
- on the other hand, seems to be
forecasting that the tropical
disturbance still over central
Africa will be the one to develop
next week as it travels westward
from the coast of Africa towards the
Lesser Antilles ..
GFS ensemble guidance
- is a little slower than its
operational counterpart, but also
has many members forecasting that
tropical development will occur
between the coast of Africa and the
Leeward Islands next week ..
finally -
we want to let you know that the
model guidance may be currently
under forecasting the amount of
tropical activity that is about to
occur across the Atlantic .. we have
a very strong upward motion pulse of
the Madden Julian Oscillation that
will push into the Atlantic late
this week into next week .. we don’t
think that the model guidance has
yet picked up on this, but probably
will start doing so in a few days or
so .. this means that what you see
in the model guidance in terms of
tropical development chances may be
vastly underdone ..
.
.
Hurricane Dorian - let’s not
forget the Bahamas ..
the Bahamas needs your help ..
please respect their wishes and
help in the ways they have
requested .. see links below ..
Bahamas Red Cross Society
..
https://bahamasredcross.org/bahamas-red-cross-society-hurricane-dorian-assitance-helpushelp/
Bahamas official Hurricane
Relief page
..
https://www.bahamas.com/hurricane-relief
Association of Bahamas Marinas
..
https://twitter.com/BahamasMarinas/status/1168913362853552129
note
- additional suggestions and
links to reputable relief
organizations are welcome ..
.
.
.
.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
|