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Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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2019-05-23 - Tropical Weather Update - with today's report we are taking a look at a the western Caribbean ..
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bottom line - we think that there is a 25 percent chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean between Wednesday of next week and next Sunday ..
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western Caribbean - satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that there is fairly persistent shower and thunderstorm activity occurring from the southwestern Caribbean westward across parts of Central America into the eastern Pacific .. this is being caused by a large and disorganized area of low pressure that is likely to remain from the western Caribbean into the eastern Pacific for at least the next week .. this system requires close monitoring for possible tropical development next week in the western Caribbean that may eventually be drawn northward into the Bay of Campeche ..
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at this time - the main spin to the overall broad low pressure system seems to be more towards the southwestern Caribbean rather than over the eastern Pacific .. this is important because once all of this begins to be drawn northward by a trough of low pressure passing to the north, the greater risk for development may be on the Caribbean side and not the Pacific side ..
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at this time - the environmental conditions are unfavorable for development across much of the Caribbean .. the exception is the far southwestern Caribbean near the coast of Panama where wind shear values are favorable for development .. there are a couple of interesting things to note when looking at the latest model guidance ..
the first - is that all of the model guidance are now hinting at some sort of tropical development to occur next week, perhaps as soon as Wednesday or Thursday of next week .. the real “interesting” part is that this is no longer a 10 or 15 day model forecast and that the guidance, as a whole, seems to be bringing the timing of this possible development closer to the present, rather than keeping it in the 10 to 15 day range ..
the second - interesting thing to note about the latest model guidance is that they continue to forecast the area of strong wind shear across the Caribbean to lift northward leaving conditions that may be favorable for development by about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week ..
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model guidance ..
European model - forecasts that a strong upper level ridge of high pressure will extend from Texas through the Gulf of Mexico which would direct any system westward towards the Bay of Campeche and then into Mexico ..
GFS model - forecasts a much weaker upper level high pressure ridge and a Eastern US trough of low pressure .. this setup would cause any tropical system to be pulled northward out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico ..
note - the European model has a bias of over strengthening upper high pressure ridges while the GFS model has a bias of showing too weak of a high pressure ridge and too strong of upper level troughs ..
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bottom line - given the combination of most of the energy with the broad area of low pressure being located closer to the Caribbean, a forecast of decreasing wind shear next week and a weather pattern that supports tropical development we think that the western Caribbean is really a place that needs to be watched closely for signs of tropical development next week ..
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bottom bottom line - we think that there is a 25 percent chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean between Wednesday of next week and next Sunday ..
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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