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Marv's Weather Service
Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA
below are links to their websites
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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2018-05-19- Tropical Weather Update - with this report we are looking again at the Gulf of Mexico for chances of tropical development and RAIN ..
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Gulf of Mexico - it still looks like we may see tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean as we get into the middle and later parts of next week .. any tropical system that does form in the northwestern Caribbean is currently forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next weekend .. this type of track would bring even more heavy rainfall and flooding to the Florida Peninsula next weekend along with the possibility of severe weather and tropical storm conditions ..
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model guidance - all of the major global model guidance are in agreement in showing tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean between Wednesday and Friday of next week .. what the guidance are not in agreement with right is the potential track of this system as they all show very different possible tracks ..
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GFS and the GFS ensemble guidance - show a more easterly track taking this system across southeastern Florida and near the coast of eastern Florida next weekend .. this appears to be a bias with the GFS model and I suspect we will see a more westerly track than what these models show ..
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Canadian model guidance - is much quicker in its forecast track and shows a track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday followed by a track into the Big Bend area of northwest Florida next Saturday ..
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European model guidance - is the furthest west and weakest of the model suite and shows a very broad low pressure system to track northward into the central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday .. by next weekend, the European model guidance forecasts this system to strengthen into a tropical storm as it moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern Louisiana next Monday ..
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NAVGEM model - is similar to the Canadian model in that it shows a track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late next week followed by a track across western and northern Florida on Friday.
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multi-model (GFS, Canadian and European) ensemble - tropical cyclone genesis probability charts currently forecast a 30-40 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the middle part of next week ..
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bottom line - we still think that we are going to have to keep an eye on the northwestern Caribbean for tropical development between Wednesday and Friday of next week .. the convection that is currently occurring from the southwestern Caribbean northward through Jamaica to central Cuba is associated with a frontal boundary along the eastern United States .. we do think that once this frontal system pulls away early next week, it will leave behind a piece of energy over the western Caribbean .. at the same time, a tropical wave currently located to the east of the southern Lesser Antilles between 50 and 55 West Longitude will push westward over the next several days reaching the western Caribbean by about the middle of next week .. that looks to occur is that the combination of the piece of energy being left behind and this westward moving tropical wave will potentially set off tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean during the middle and later parts of next week ..
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looking ahead - the very strong wind shear that is currently present across the entire Caribbean is forecast to decrease somewhat next week as the ribbon of strong wind shear lifts northward and is replaced by a upper level high pressure ridge .. we think that the environmental conditions will be favorable enough to allow for tropical development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean .. with that said, the environmental conditions will not be at all optimal, so we're probably going to be looking at a very messy, east weighted tropical system ..
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also - another factor that favors tropical development is that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be placed right over the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico throughout next week .. this should promote the development of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico and also will assist in this potential tropical development ..
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at this time - we still think that there is about a 20 percent chance for tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean between Wednesday and Friday of next week .. the reason why we are not tacking on a higher chance for development is for a couple of reasons ..
the first reason - is that the environmental conditions are forecast to be just be favorable enough for development and any changes in this will mean that conditions will be unfavorable and tropical development will not occur ..
the second reason - is that while sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm enough for tropical development over the northwestern Caribbean, analysis indicates that sea surface temperatures over the eastern Gulf of Mexico are not warm enough to support development .. this means that anything that tries to form in the northwestern Caribbean may not maintain itself as it pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico ..
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bottom bottom line - we think that we will see a  track that brings a potential tropical storm from the northwestern Caribbean on Wednesday into Thursday through the eastern Gulf of Mexico just barely offshore of the west coast of Florida around Friday of next week .. this potential tropical storm we think, may make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area of northwestern Florida sometime next weekend .. this is a favored storm track this time of year and based on all of the latest data, it is the type of track that seems most possible right now ..
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very messy tropical cyclone - and heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main threat with this system .. the entire Florida Peninsula will likely see another round of very heavy rainfall and flooding late next week through next weekend .. given that conditions are already very wet across the Florida Peninsula, heavy rainfall connected to a tropical cyclone could bring some significant to major flooding across a large part of the Florida Peninsula during the Memorial Day Holiday weekend .. in addition, severe weather and tornadoes is also a potential concern across a large part of the Florida Peninsula next weekend .. in addition to this there will be heavy rainfall and storminess starting in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and spreading into the northwestern Caribbean next week .. this heavy rainfall and storminess is expected to impact much of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula ..
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2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names ..
Alberto .. Beryl .. Chris .. Debby .. Ernesto .. Florence .. Gordon .. Helene .. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk .. Leslie .. Michael .. Nadine .. Oscar .. Patty .. Rafael .. Sara .. Tony .. Valerie ..William
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
contact us
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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