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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA
 
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2018-09-19 - Tropical Weather Update - .. with today's report we have an updates on the east coast of Africa and a quick look at Bermuda ..
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east coast of Africa - there are a couple of tropical disturbances between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles that need to be watched for potential tropical development in the coming days ..
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first tropical disturbance - currently located about 1000 miles or so to the east of the Windward Islands .. satellite imagery indicates that there is some sort of circulation associated with this disturbed weather and for now it's within a region of favorable environmental conditions .. this means that some development is possible today through Thursday, however, it appears that this disturbance will be yanked to the northwest as we get into Friday and this weekend .. once this happens, this tropical disturbance will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions and any additional development would be highly unlikely .. at this point, the first tropical disturbance poses no threat to the Lesser Antilles ..
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second tropical disturbance - his disturbance is currently located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands between 25 and 30 West Longitude and this system is likely to push westward over the next several days .. the environmental conditions along the forecast path of this disturbance are favorable for development and we are going to have to keep an eye on it .. there is the possibility that this second disturbance could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm before it reaches Barbados and the Windward Islands in about a week or so from now .. this means that everyone in the Windward Islands and on the island of Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this second disturbance it is not an immediate threat, however, it is something to keep an eye on .. at this point, only the FV-3 GFS experimental model forecasts development before it reaches the Windward Islands while the other model guidance members keep this system a strong tropical disturbance ..
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This second tropical disturbance is one that requires close watching for the Caribbean .. the reason why is this disturbance now located over the eastern Atlantic could be the trigger for tropical development in the western Caribbean around the first week of October ..
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as this tropical disturbance pushes into the Caribbean late next week and next weekend (September 28-30), it will encounter a upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation that will be pushing into the Atlantic Basin around that time .. this upward motion pulse will help to increase moisture and increase convection across the Caribbean and the tropical disturbance could provide the trigger to set off tropical development in the western Caribbean around the first week of October ..
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model guidance - the long range GFS, FV3-GFS experimental and GFS ensemble model guidance continue to forecast some sort of tropical development to occur in the Caribbean at the very end of this month and the very beginning of October .. the model members do vary on where tropical development may occur .. the GFS model forecasts that the tropical development might occur in the central Caribbean on October 1 .. the GFS ensemble guidance shows a trend towards western Caribbean tropical development during the first week of October .. the FV3-GFS experimental model forecasts a tropical storm in the northeast Caribbean next weekend that heads for the Bahamas during the first few days of October .. the European operational model forecasts no tropical development in the Caribbean for the next 10 days .. the European ensemble guidance does have about a quarter of its members forecasting western Caribbean tropical development during the first week of October ..
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bottom line - the second tropical disturbance that is now located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has the potential to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm at some point in the Caribbean either at the very end of this month in the eastern Caribbean or in the western Caribbean during the first week of October .. where this system tracks will depend heavily on where exactly it forms .. if it develops in the eastern Caribbean, then a track towards the Bahamas and near the US East Coast could be in the cards .. on the other, if this system waits to develop until the western Caribbean, then a track into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico would become more likely .. the potential for Caribbean tropical development at the end of this month and during the first week of October is something that we will be monitoring very closely and we will keep you all updated ..
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Bermuda - we are keeping an eye on a frontal boundary that is pushing off of the US East Coast. In particular, there is the potential for some sort of sub-tropical or tropical system to spin up along the tail end of this front as it nears Bermuda on Thursday into Friday. In addition, there is the possibility that this system could loop back around to the west and head back towards the US Southeast Coast next week ..
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model guidance - GFS and European model has a scenario that consists of this system heading way out to near 50 West Longitude before it loops back and tries to head for Atlantic Canada late next week .. meanwhile, the UKMET model forecasts a quick loop back towards the US Southeast Coast early next week .. remember, the UKMET model was one of the first models to forecast that Florence would track quite far west in longitude even though it was too far south with the overall track, it did show the possibility first .. looking at the ensemble guidance, more of the ensemble members forecast a track to the east way past Bermuda .. there are a couple of ensemble members that try to bring this system back towards the US Southeast Coast ..
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bottom line - we think the part that we are most sure about is that a low pressure system will impact Bermuda on Thursday into Friday with heavy showers and gusty winds .. there is the possibility that it may try to acquire tropical or sub-tropical characteristics this weekend .. beyond this, we will have to watch carefully to see if this system tries to turn back towards the west and head for the US Southeast Coast late this weekend into next week .. even if this system does loop back towards the US Southeast Coast, it will likely be quite weak in strength ..
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2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names ..
Alberto .. Beryl .. Chris .. Debby .. Ernesto .. Florence .. Gordon .. Helene .. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk .. Leslie .. Michael .. Nadine .. Oscar .. Patty .. Rafael .. Sara .. Tony .. Valerie ..William
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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