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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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2019-01-31 - Tropical Weather
Update
- with today's report we are
again taking an early look
at the
2019 Atlantic, Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico hurricane
season
..
.
2019 hurricane season
- we know we are not even into
February yet, but we are always
looking at the different
parameters and signals that go
into making a Hurricane Season
inactive or active .. this is
what we are seeing as of right
now ..
.
at this time - the
overall forecast continues to be
a very difficult one as it
hinges on whether we will have
El Nino conditions persist
through much of this year or
whether we will be headed
towards neutral ENSO conditions
this Summer and Autumn .. also
as usual, how warm the ocean
temperatures are and how strong
the overall shear is will
dictate activity levels in 2019
..
.
ENSO conditions - we are
currently in weak El Nino
conditions and probably will
remain in at least weak El Nino
conditions into Spring ..
looking at the summer of 2019,
the ENSO model guidance are
split between calling for a very
weak El Nino and calling for
neutral ENSO conditions .. the
ECMWF nino forecast, which is
typically too warm in their
forecasts, are calling for
neutral ENSO conditions this
Summer .. this could be a
problem as this could very well
mean yet another above average
season for tropical activity ..
.
looking ahead - with all
of that said, ENSO forecasts
this time of year can be highly
inaccurate as has been
demonstrated the last couple of
years ..
.
ocean water temperatures
across the Atlantic Basin -
temperatures across much of the
Atlantic Basin has actually
warmed since mid-December and in
fact the eastern Atlantic is now
above average .. this
temperature profile of overall
above average ocean water
temperatures is something that
will need to be watched .. if we
see this warming continue across
the Main Development Region like
we saw during 2017 and 2018,
then a busy to very busy season
could be in the offing ..
.
at this time - the model
guidance are split with the CFS
model forecasting above average
ocean water temperatures
everywhere across the Atlantic
by Summer, 2019 while the
CanSIPS model is forecasting
near average and even a little
below average ocean water
temperatures from the Caribbean
eastward to the coast of Africa
..
.
wind shear forecasts -
the CFS model continues to
forecast that areas along and
below 20 North Latitude may see
above average wind shear during
much of the Hurricane Season
with below average wind shear
north of 20 North Latitude ..
the CanSIPS climate model
continues to show a more
favorable environment for
tropical development during
August, September and October,
especially across the Gulf of
Mexico and near the East coast
of the United States ..
.
bottom line - the
forecast for the 2019 Atlantic
Hurricane Season continues to be
a very difficult and uncertain
one .. there are a few
reasons for this ..
.
first reason - is the
overall uncertainty as to
whether we will have neutral
ENSO conditions or have a El
Nino continue through the 2019
Atlantic Hurricane Season.
.
second reason - is the
extremely long range forecasts
for higher than average wind
shear as compared to 2018 .. if
we do see these types of above
average shear conditions, it
could lead to less storms this
year .. should the more
favorable wind shear condition
guidance verify correctly, then
a much more active season could
occur ..
.
third reason - is the
overall warming of ocean water
temperatures in the middle of
winter .. this is troubling
because if we see these above
average ocean water temperatures
continue, it could lead to an
active season in terms of number
of storms ..
.
bottom bottom line - we
think that we could see the
following for the 2019 Atlantic,
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
Hurricane Season ..
10 Named Storms - 5 of
those storms becoming Hurricanes
and 2 of those of hurricanes
becoming Major Hurricanes .. the
reason why we continue to
forecast relatively low numbers
is because of the uncertainty as
to how the various parameters
will play out in making it an
active or inactive season .. if
we do end up seeing neutral ENSO
conditions combine with above
average ocean water temperatures
and lower than average wind
shear, then we could see much
higher numbers than what we are
currently forecasting ..
.
- even though the forecast
number of storms gives you an
idea to how active the Atlantic
might look, the much more
important part of the forecast
is which areas may be at risk
during the 2019 Hurricane Season
..
.
- given that wind shear values
may be above average along and
below 20 North Latitude this
coming Hurricane Season, the
Caribbean and the region from
the Lesser Antilles to the coast
of Africa may end up being
quieter than average ..
.
- much of the tropical
development could end up
occurring in the region north of
20 North Latitude and west of 60
West Longitude .. this would
potentially put Bermuda, the
Bahamas and the US Southeast
Coast at risk from any tropical
storms and hurricanes in 2019 ..
we also think that the Gulf of
Mexico could be at particular
risk again in 2019 from any
tropical storms and hurricanes
..
.
looking ahead - we will
continue to monitor the various
model guidance members and long
range signals for the 2019
Atlantic Hurricane Season
throughout the next 4 months and
will have updates for you as
conditions warrant ..
.
.
.
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Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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