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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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2018-09-19 - Tropical Weather
Update
- .. with today's report we have
an updates on the east coast
of
Africa
and a quick look at Bermuda
..
.
.
east coast of
Africa
- there are a couple of tropical
disturbances between the coast
of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles that need to be watched
for potential tropical
development in the coming days
..
.
first tropical disturbance
- currently located about 1000
miles or so to the east of the
Windward Islands .. satellite
imagery indicates that there is
some sort of circulation
associated with this disturbed
weather and for now it's within
a region of favorable
environmental conditions .. this
means that some development is
possible today through Thursday,
however, it appears that this
disturbance will be yanked to
the northwest as we get into
Friday and this weekend .. once
this happens, this tropical
disturbance will encounter
unfavorable environmental
conditions and any additional
development would be highly
unlikely .. at this point, the
first tropical disturbance poses
no threat to the Lesser Antilles
..
.
second tropical disturbance -
his disturbance is currently
located to the southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands between 25
and 30 West Longitude and this
system is likely to push
westward over the next several
days .. the environmental
conditions along the forecast
path of this disturbance are
favorable for development and we
are going to have to keep an eye
on it .. there is the
possibility that this second
disturbance could develop into a
tropical depression or a
tropical storm before it reaches
Barbados and the Windward
Islands in about a week or so
from now .. this means that
everyone in the Windward Islands
and on the island of Barbados
should closely monitor the
progress of this second
disturbance it is not an
immediate threat, however, it is
something to keep an eye on ..
at this point, only the FV-3 GFS
experimental model forecasts
development before it reaches
the Windward Islands while the
other model guidance members
keep this system a strong
tropical disturbance ..
.
This second tropical disturbance
is one that requires close
watching for the Caribbean
.. the reason why is this
disturbance now located over the
eastern Atlantic could be the
trigger for tropical development
in the western Caribbean around
the first week of October ..
.
as this tropical disturbance
pushes into the Caribbean late
next week and next weekend (September
28-30), it will
encounter a upward motion pulse
of the Madden Julian Oscillation
that will be pushing into the
Atlantic Basin around that time
.. this upward motion pulse will
help to increase moisture and
increase convection across the
Caribbean and the tropical
disturbance could provide the
trigger to set off tropical
development in the western
Caribbean around the first week
of October ..
.
model guidance -
the long range GFS, FV3-GFS
experimental and GFS ensemble
model guidance continue to
forecast some sort of tropical
development to occur in the
Caribbean at the very end of
this month and the very
beginning of October .. the
model members do vary on where
tropical development may occur
.. the GFS model forecasts that
the tropical development might
occur in the central Caribbean
on October 1 .. the GFS ensemble
guidance shows a trend towards
western Caribbean tropical
development during the first
week of October .. the FV3-GFS
experimental model forecasts a
tropical storm in the northeast
Caribbean next weekend that
heads for the Bahamas during the
first few days of October .. the
European operational model
forecasts no tropical
development in the Caribbean for
the next 10 days .. the European
ensemble guidance does have
about a quarter of its members
forecasting western Caribbean
tropical development during the
first week of October ..
.
bottom
line -
the second tropical disturbance
that is now located to the
southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has the potential to
become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm at some point
in the Caribbean either at the
very end of this month in the
eastern Caribbean or in the
western Caribbean during the
first week of October .. where
this system tracks will depend
heavily on where exactly it
forms .. if it develops in the
eastern Caribbean, then a track
towards the Bahamas and near the
US East Coast could be in the
cards .. on the other, if this
system waits to develop until
the western Caribbean, then a
track into the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico would
become more likely .. the
potential for Caribbean tropical
development at the end of this
month and during the first week
of October is something that we
will be monitoring very closely
and we will keep you all updated
..
.
.
Bermuda -
we are keeping an eye on a
frontal boundary that is pushing
off of the US East Coast. In
particular, there is the
potential for some sort of
sub-tropical or tropical system
to spin up along the tail end of
this front as it nears Bermuda
on Thursday into Friday. In
addition, there is the
possibility that this system
could loop back around to the
west and head back towards the
US Southeast Coast next week ..
.
model guidance
- GFS and European model has a
scenario that consists of this
system heading way out to near
50 West Longitude before it
loops back and tries to head for
Atlantic Canada late next week
.. meanwhile, the UKMET model
forecasts a quick loop back
towards the US Southeast Coast
early next week .. remember, the
UKMET model was one of the first
models to forecast that Florence
would track quite far west in
longitude – even though it was
too far south with the overall
track, it did show the
possibility first .. looking at
the ensemble guidance, more of
the ensemble members forecast a
track to the east way past
Bermuda .. there are a couple of
ensemble members that try to
bring this system back towards
the US Southeast Coast ..
.
bottom line
- we think the part that we are
most sure about is that a low
pressure system will impact
Bermuda on Thursday into Friday
with heavy showers and gusty
winds .. there is the
possibility that it may try to
acquire tropical or sub-tropical
characteristics this weekend ..
beyond this, we will have to
watch carefully to see if this
system tries to turn back
towards the west and head for
the US Southeast Coast late this
weekend into next week .. even
if this system does loop back
towards the US Southeast Coast,
it will likely be quite weak in
strength ..
.
.
2018 Atlantic Tropical
Cyclone Names ..
Alberto .. Beryl
.. Chris ..
Debby
.. Ernesto ..
Florence
.. Gordon .. Helene
.. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk ..
Leslie ..
Michael
.. Nadine .. Oscar
.. Patty .. Rafael
.. Sara .. Tony ..
Valerie ..William
.
.
.
.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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