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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA
below are links to their websites

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2017-01-17 - Tropical Weather Update - this is our first tropical weather update for 2017 .. with our report today we are taking a quick / short look ahead at our 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season ..

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - all signs are pointing towards our current La Nina to become neutral conditions either during February or March .. these signs include ocean water temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, which are gradually warming up to near normal levels .. we think that there is a very good chance that we will see these neutral ENSO conditions persist through the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, however we are not convinced that we will see the development of a new El Nino this year, even though some of the climate models suggest the development of a El Nino during this summer or autumn ..

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at this time - there is a large difference between the ENSO climate models with their forecasts .. the European model has 80 percent of its members forecasting the development of a El Nino by May or June .. at this time most of the CFS model members are forecasting neutral conditions through this summer and autumn .. we are leaning much more towards the idea of a neutral ENSO starting during either February or March and continuing through this summer and autumn .. one big reason why we do not think we'll see a El Nino this year is because a quick turnaround from La Nina to a El Nino is rare ..

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bottom line - we still think that the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be near or slightly above average .. this means that there is still the potential for 12 to 14 named storms with 5 to 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 2 to 3 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes .. this forecast is based on the following ..

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1 - neutral ENSO ..

2 - above average amounts of unstable air ..

3 - an active phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) ..

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looking ahead - we see the development of a El Nino during this summer or autumn, it could mean a quieter hurricane season than what we are forecasting right now ..

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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
contact us
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Marv's Weather Service - home page
disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

twr