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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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2019-07-16 - Tropical Weather
Update
- with today's report we are
taking a look ahead at the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico ..
.
note
- stay tuned .. our
reports will be updated
throughout the day if there are
any significant tropical weather
changes ..
.
bottom line
- no tropical development is
expected this week across the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico .. tropical development
chances may begin to increase
again near the end of this month
..
.
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico
.. with Barry well inland over
northwestern Missouri we will
turn our eyes back out into the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico to see if anything is
brewing .. it looks like
tropical development is not
expected this week across the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico .. with that said, there
are things that we are always
keeping an eye on, just in case
..
.
looking ahead -
it is possible that we could see
no tropical development right
through all of next week as well
.. after that, the tropical
development chances look to
increase as we close this month
and open up the month of August
.. it appears that upward motion
across the Atlantic Basin will
increase by late this month
leading to an increase in
overall favorable environmental
conditions .. the very long
range CFS model continues to
show these favorable conditions
and has been very consistent in
showing a tropical system to
impact the Lesser Antilles
between August 01st and August
05th .. the CFS model also shows
a second tropical system
potentially impacting the Lesser
Antilles around mid-August ..
the CFS model shows this second
tropical system ultimately
impacting the Bahamas and riding
up the US East Coast between
August 17 and August 20 ..
.
looking way ahead
- there are pretty strong
signals in the data that
suggests things may be quite
busy throughout August and
September with multiple threats
to the US Coastline, both the
East Coast and the Gulf Coast ..
model guidance like the CFS
model will never, ever get the
exact details of the weather
right, there are some concerning
signals in the data that suggest
that August, September and maybe
even part of October could be
quite busy .. the forecast El
Nino is not going to happen and
its influence on the Atlantic
Basin is now starting to fade ..
the Atlantic Sea Surface
Temperature profile is trending
towards one that is more
favorable for tropical
development .. the level of
shear as compared to average has
fallen to near or below average
across the Caribbean and the
central and eastern Atlantic ..
all of these signals say to us
that conditions may be favorable
to even quite favorable for
tropical development throughout
August and September .. with
that said, the amount of
unstable air over the Caribbean
and the central and eastern
Atlantic has been below average
.. meaning, the atmosphere has
had a more difficult time than
average lately in producing
robust thunderstorm activity ..
thus while things may get busy
during August and September, it
doesn’t look like it’ll get
crazy, insane busy in terms of
the number of named storms ..
.
bottom line -
tropical development looks
unlikely throughout this week
and possibly right through next
week as well .. beyond this,
tropical development chances
look to increase at the very end
of this month and the very
beginning of August. In
addition, August and September
could be quite busy in terms of
tropical activity across the
Atlantic Basin with the
possibility of multiple threats
to the US Coastline .. ie both
the East Coast and the Gulf
Coast ..
.
.
.
.
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Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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