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above - Tropical mess yuck !

Western Atlantic activity

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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from

Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page and NOAA

below are links to their websites

2017-07-21 - Tropical Weather Update .. with our report today we are going to take a look at an area near the US southeast coast as well as the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ..

near the US southeast coast - the area near the southeastern US coast between eastern North Carolina and eastern Florida may need to be watched for possible tropical development .. the reason for this potential tropical development is because a rather strong frontal boundary is forecast to push southward into the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States late next week .. the possibility is there for a low pressure system to form over the Atlantic waters close to the coast of South Carolina and Georgia either next Friday or next Saturday ..

bottom line - at this time the possibility for tropical development in close to the US southeast coast is something we are not going to take seriously for now and there are a couple of reasons why because at this point the model guidance has just started picking up on this possibility and there is little consensus or consistency between the models .. also because the overall weather pattern doesn't look favorable to produce a tropical cyclone near the US Southeast Coast .. if we do see a digging trough of low pressure along the US East Coast next weekend, it would pull any low pressure systems northeastward into the open Atlantic .. to see a scenario that leads to tropical development along the southeastern United States coast, we need to have a blocking high pressure system over the northeastern United States and this is not occurring with the latest model guidance forecasts ..

at this time - it is just something to keep an eye on and see if this is something to be concerned about or is something that probably will not happen ..

the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico - tropical development is not expected across the rest of the Atlantic Basin through this weekend and into possibly much of next week .. a tropical wave along 57 West Longitude is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms .. even though the thunderstorm activity is concentrated, development is not expected due to 30 knots of westerly wind shear ..

bottom line - another tropical disturbance is located along 45 West Longitude is producing shower and thunderstorm activity .. this disturbance is embedded within an area of favorable wind shear conditions and will be monitored this weekend into next week for signs of development .. we are not anticipating significant development from this tropical disturbance as it is likely to move into a very unfavorable environment for development by Tuesday or Wednesday .. the expected track of this disturbance may bring it right over the northern Lesser Antilles and the extreme northeastern part of the Caribbean around Thursday of next week where it could bring squally weather to the northeastern Caribbean around Wednesday and Thursday ..

for more details check out

Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .

NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

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