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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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.
Tropical Weather Update
2019-10-11 as of 10:00 am
.
areas of interest ..
.
western Caribbean
- tropical development is
possible late this weekend
and early next
week
.. this tropical system may move
into
the Bay of
Campeche
later next
week
..
.
and ..
.
south coast of New England -
the storm that is located about
200 miles to the south-southeast
of Martha’s Vineyard has become
better organized and has the
potential of becoming a
short-lived sub-tropical storm
at some point today ..
.
.
western Caribbean -
satellite imagery indicates that
there continues to be some
shower and thunderstorm activity
occurring over the southwestern
Caribbean .. this convection is
being caused by a broad low
pressure system over this area
of the southwestern Caribbean ..
.
at this time
- analysis of environmental
conditions indicates that wind
shear values are between 10 and
20 knots across the southwestern
Caribbean, however, wind shear
values increase to 20 to 25
knots across the northwestern
Caribbean .. we do still think
that we will see this area of
disturbed weather gradually
increase in organization this
weekend as it moves right along
the coast of Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama
..
.
looking ahead
- during the first half of next
week, this area of disturbed
weather may push into the
northwestern Caribbean very
close to the coast of Belize and
northern Honduras .. it
continues to be quite possible
that this area of disturbed
weather may develop into at
least a tropical depression
either later this weekend in the
southwestern Caribbean or during
the first half of next week in
the northwestern Caribbean ..
.
model guidance -
some of the model guidance have
trended a little stronger with
their forecasts for tropical
development with this system ..
GFS and Canadian model
- now forecast some tropical
development near the coast of
Belize and northern Honduras
early next week with more robust
development occurring late next
week in the Bay of Campeche ..
both the GFS and Canadian model
forecast a tropical storm to
head northeastward next weekend
from the southern Gulf of Mexico
to the coast of south-central
and southeastern Louisiana .. it
should be noted that the GFS
model has been extremely
consistent with development for
about 2 weeks now .. it’s also
worthy to note that even though
the European model does not show
outright tropical development,
it is showing a very similar
evolution with a system heading
into the northwestern Caribbean
near Belize early next week and
then into the Bay of Campeche
late next week .. what we think
we are seeing in the model
guidance is a continuing trend
towards a robust trough of low
pressure to move into the
eastern United States late next
week .. this leads to this
tropical system being pulled
northwestward into the Bay of
Campeche late next week and then
driven north and northeastward
towards the northern Gulf Coast
next weekend ..
.
bottom line
- we still think that there is a
50 percent chance for this
disturbance to become a tropical
depression and possibly even a
tropical storm early next week
near the coast of Belize or
northern Honduras .. in
addition, this system looks
likely to move into the Bay of
Campeche late next week where it
could develop further .. given
the weather pattern change later
next week towards a upper level
trough of low pressure moving
into the eastern United States
we think that the GFS model and
the Canadian model may be on the
right track and that the
European model may be showing
its westward bias and its bias
towards a stronger high pressure
ridge and weaker trough of low
pressure .. we still think the
models are still adjusting to
later next week’s weather
pattern change and that we will
probably see additional shifts
and changes in the model
guidance over the next few days
..
heads up
- be careful when looking at the
model guidance for later next
week and beyond as they may
still not be totally catching
onto the weather pattern changes
that could occur .. we do think
that mid and late October
climatology is useful when
looking at what could occur with
this tropical system.
Climatology seems to suggest any
organizing and strengthening
tropical system in the
northwestern Caribbean or the
Bay of Campeche is usually
pulled either towards the
central or eastern Gulf of
Mexico or across the Florida
Peninsula and up the US East
Coast .. this is what the GFS
and Canadian model seems to be
trending towards in their latest
forecasts ..
.
heavy rainfall for central
America -
this area of disturbed weather
is likely to produce heavy
rainfall from today through this
weekend across Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica and eastern parts of
Nicaragua and Honduras .. this
heavy rainfall threat is likely
to spread into Guatemala, Belize
and parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula and southern Mexico
during the first half of next
week .. this heavy rainfall
could lead to flash floods and
mudslides across these areas ..
.
.
.
south coast of New England -
the ocean storm that is located
about 200 miles to the
south-southeast of Martha’s
Vineyard has become better
organized this morning and has
the potential of becoming a
short-lived sub-tropical storm
at some point today .. any
development into a sub-tropical
storm will be short-lived as
environmental conditions will
become highly unfavorable this
weekend and weakening is then
likely ..
.
forecast impacts -
this ocean storm will continue
to produce wind gusts of up to
40 to 60 mph the rest of today
through tonight across southern
and eastern Long Island, across
the south coast of New England
and also across Cape Cod,
Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket
..
.
wave heights
- of up to 25 to 35 feet are
expected to continue across the
offshore waters of the
Mid-Atlantic and across the
offshore waters to the south of
Long Island and Cape Cod today
and tonight .. this storm will
continue to be a major marine
hazard today through Saturday
from southern New England
through the Mid-Atlantic states
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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