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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
Weather Report
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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2018-11-24 - Tropical Weather
Update
- with today's report we have an
update on the Southwestern
Atlantic .. yup it’s not
over till the ‘fat lady does her
thing’ ..
.
.
.
Southwestern Atlantic
- it looks like there will be at
least a couple of chances for
sub-tropical development over
the next week or so across the
southwestern Atlantic
..satellite imagery indicated
that there are some shower and
thunderstorm activity occurring
at the tail end of a frontal
boundary near the northern and
eastern Bahamas .. it looks very
likely that an area of low
pressure will form at the tail
end of this front just east of
Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas
tonight or Saturday with this
low pressure system heading
east-northeastward towards
Bermuda this weekend and into
the open Atlantic during the
first half of next week..
.
looking ahead
- even though the amount of wind
shear across the southwestern
Atlantic is very strong, there
is still a chance that this low
pressure system may try to
become a sub-tropical storm as
it will be moving in the same
direction as the overall wind
shear vector thus causing a low
net wind shear over it .. even
if we do not see sub-tropical
development from this low
pressure system winds of gale
force along with seas of 10 to
15 feet are likely across the
western Atlantic in the area
from the US Southeast Coast
eastward to Bermuda through this
weekend into early next week ..
.
bottom line
- those of you on the island of
Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this low pressure
system as it could bring you
tropical storm force winds this
weekend as it moves very close
to you ..
.
.
southwestern Atlantic
- a second chance for
sub-tropical development either
over the eastern and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico or
more likely over the
southwestern Atlantic late next
week ..
.
model guidance
- a large majority of the model
guidance, including the GFS,
FV3-GFS and European model
guidance are all forecasting the
development of a low pressure
system over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico around Thursday
of next week .. the model
guidance are all unanimous in
forecasting this storm system to
cross south Florida bringing
heavy rainfall and squally
weather to central and south
Florida and the northern Bahamas
next Thursday into
next Friday .. beyond
this the model guidance seems to
diverge with the GFS model
guidance forecasting this low
pressure system to head eastward
and pass south of Bermuda next
weekend while the European model
forecasts dissipation just east
of the Bahamas next weekend ..
.
looking ahead
- there is support from the
ensemble guidance on the
development of this second low
pressure system in either the
eastern Gulf of Mexico or near
the northern Bahamas late next
week .. we do think that this
second low pressure system for
late next week will also need to
be watched for sub-tropical
development .. the reason why is
because much like our current
system, this second one will
also be moving in the same
direction as the overall wind
shear vector .. this leads to a
overall very low net wind shear
value and thus favorable
conditions over it .. the low
pressure system for late next
week has the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall
and squally weather across a
large part of south Florida and
across parts of central Florida
on Thursday and Friday of next
week ..
.
bottom line
- so this will be something to
keep an eye on ..
.
.
2018 Atlantic Tropical
Cyclone Names
Alberto .. Beryl
.. Chris ..
Debby
.. Ernesto ..
Florence
.. Gordon .. Helene
.. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk ..
Leslie ..
Michael
.. Nadine .. Oscar
.. Patty .. Rafael
.. Sara .. Tony ..
Valerie ..William
.
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Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |