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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA

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2018-12-16 - Tropical Weather Update - with today's report we are taking an early look at the 2019 Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico hurricane season .. in one word El Nino ..
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2019 Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season - we know it's early, but we wanted to go over what we are already looking at in terms of signals for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bottom line is that the forecast is a very difficult one as it hinges heavily on whether we will still be in El Nino conditions or whether we will be headed towards neutral ENSO conditions. Also, as usual, how warm the ocean temperatures are and how strong the overall shear is will dictate activity levels in 2019 ..
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ENSO conditions - we are currently in weak El Nino conditions and probably will remain in at least weak El Nino conditions throughout this winter into the Spring of 2019 .. turning towards Summer of 2019, the ENSO model guidance are split between calling for a weak El Nino and calling for neutral ENSO conditions .. if we do see El Nino conditions persist through much of the 2019 Hurricane season, it could mean a inactive season in terms of numbers .. on the other hand, should we see neutral ENSO conditions during the 2019 Hurricane season, it could mean a very active season in terms of the number of storms that form ..
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bottom line - at this time of the year ENSO forecasts can be highly inaccurate as has been demonstrated the last couple of years ..
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ocean water temperatures across the Atlantic basin - temperatures across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, in the Bahamas and off of the southeast US coast are above average .. meanwhile, ocean water temperatures across the central and eastern Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles are currently below average .. should we see this type of temperature structure persist into the 2019 hurricane season, it could lead to a less active season than 2017 and 2018 .. if we see significant warming across the Main Development Region like we saw during summers of 2017 and 2018, then a busy to very busy season could be in the offing .. at this time the model guidance are split with the CFS model forecasting above average ocean water temperatures everywhere across the Atlantic by Summer 2019 while the CanSIPS model is forecasting near average and even below average ocean water temperatures from the Caribbean eastward to the coast of Africa ..
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CFS model - is indicating that there could be above average wind shear conditions across a large part of the Atlantic during June and July and near average to slightly below average wind shear conditions across the northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico during August and September of 2019 .. it should be noted that the CanSIPS climate model is forecasting a slightly more favorable environment for tropical development during August and September, especially across the Gulf of Mexico and near the southeastern coast of the United States ..
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bottom line - the forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season looks to be a very difficult and uncertain one .. the reason for this is due to the uncertainty as to whether we will have El Nino conditions persist through the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season .. and the forecasts for higher than average wind shear as compared to 2018 is likely due to the fact these models are forecasting El Nino conditions .. should we see El Nino conditions transition into neutral ENSO conditions, then we think that a more favorable environment for development could be in the offing ..
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bottom bottom line - we think that we could see the following for the 2019 Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Hurricane Season ..
 
10 Named Storms
5 of those storms becoming Hurricanes
and 2 of those of hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes ..
 
the reason for the relatively low numbers is because it would not surprise us to see El Nino conditions persist and combine with a less than favorable sea surface temperature and wind shear profile .. if we do end up seeing neutral ENSO conditions combine with much more favorable conditions, then we could see higher numbers than what we are  currently forecasting ..
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even though the forecast number of storms gives you an idea to how active the Atlantic might look, the much more important part of the forecast is which areas may be at risk during the 2019 Hurricane Season ..
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given that ocean water temperatures between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles may be below average or even near average with the possibility of higher than average wind shear .. we think this part of the Atlantic may end up being quieter than average .. much of the tropical development could end up occurring in the region north of 20 North Latitude and west of 50 West Longitude .. this would potentially put Bermuda, the Bahamas and the US Southeast Coast at risk from any tropical storms and hurricanes in 2019 .. we also think that the Gulf of Mexico could be at particular risk again in 2019 from any tropical storms and hurricanes ..
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for sure - we will be monitoring the various model guidance members and long range signals for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season throughout the next 6 months and will have updates for you as conditions warrant ..
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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