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Marv's Tropical
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2021-10-19 - Tropical Weather
Update
- things have been quiet across
the Atlantic, Caribbean and
Gulf of Mexico and are
looking like they are going to
remain quite .. with that this
is our very short report at this
time ..
.
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico
- no tropical development
expected for at least the rest
of this week
and into
this weekend
..
.
heads up
- check our buoy reports
in your area for wind speed and
wave heights .. if you are not
getting our buoy weather reports
sign up NOW ..
click here to sign up
..
.
note
- the next tropical weather
discussion will be issued about
midday on Friday ..
.
the end
- of our recap for now .. you
can
stop
reading now
unless you are interested in the
rest of the story ..
additional
details .. see below
..
.
.
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico
- things remain quiet across the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico with no tropical
development expected for the
rest of this week and very
probably this weekend ..
.
at this time
- we are
at a loss
as to why tropical development
has not occurred, even though
everything in the pattern,
including a La Nina and an
upward motion pulse of the MJO,
should be favorable for a spurt
of tropical development this
month .. ie usually, during a La
Nina year with a favorable MJO
pulse would produce late season
tropical systems and yet nothing
is on the horizon .. obviously a
great thing, but still unreal ..
.
looking ahead
- this lack of tropical activity
is not only just happening in
the Atlantic, but it’s
also occurring in the eastern,
central and western Pacific ..
for the Atlantic it seems the
reason for a lack of activity is
a persistent trough of low
pressure over the eastern US
which seems to be imparting
unfavorable conditions over the
Caribbean .. fortunately it just
seems like things aren’t
clicking in place for
development and our forecast for
a busy October has obviously
gone down in flames and this is
something that we are going to
try to figure out what we missed
and how we can do better next
time ..
.
Atlantic Hurricane Season -
are we done with the 2021
Atlantic Hurricane Season
?
.. to be perfectly honest we don’t
know .. we should still probably
see at least one or two more
named storms given we are in a
La Niña .. but a look at the
conditions across the Atlantic
Basin says it all .. nothing is
going to form anytime soon ..
.
bottom line
- things will be quiet and
fortunately we do not see any
evidence that we’ll
see tropical development for at
least the next 7 to 10 days plus
and possibly longer than this ..
.
.
.
heads up
- check our buoy reports in
your area for wind speed and
wave heights .. if you are
not getting our buoy weather
reports sign up now ..
click here ..
..
.
.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page,
Buoyweather and
NOAA
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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