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Marv's Weather Service
Marv's Tropical Weather Report
 
 
 
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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA
 
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2018-07-16 - Tropical Weather Update - with today's report we are again looking at the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (again 7 to 10 days ahead) ..
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Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico - it appears that things will be quiet across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico throughout this week .. we probably will not see another named storm this month and may have to wait until August before we see the next named storm (Debby) ! ..
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model guidance - including the GFS operational model, the GFS ensemble model and the European ensemble model guidance forecasts any sort of tropical development for at least the next couple of weeks .. the exception to this is the GFS operational model, which is forecasting the development of a tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico around July 29 and July 30 .. none of the other model guidance forecasts this and in fact the GFS ensemble model guidance show no such scenario .. this says to us that the GFS model may be incorrect with its forecast of tropical development in the eastern Gulf of Mexico at the end of the month ..
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bottom line - things are expected to be quiet in terms of tropical development for at least the next week and probably much longer than that .. the next time frame for increased tropical development chances across the Atlantic Basin will begin during early August and intensify as we head into mid August .. our thoughts on this were extensively detailed in Friday's (13th) tropical weather discussion below ..
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2018-07-13 - Tropical Weather Update - with today's report we are looking at the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (7 to 10 days ahead) ..
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Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico - it appears that things will be quiet across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for at least the next 7 to 10 day .. we probably will not see another named storm this month and may have to wait until August before we see the next named storm (Debby) ..
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model guidance - none of the longer range model guidance, including the GFS model, the GFS ensemble model and the European ensemble model guidance forecasts any sort of tropical development through July 28th .. we agree with this as there is large scale sinking air occurring across much of the Atlantic Basin and this will put a cap on any sort of tropical development from happening..
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looking ahead - we think the next time frame for increased tropical development chances across the Atlantic Basin will arrive by early August and intensify as we head into mid August .. a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin during the first half of August leading to increased rainfall and storminess across the tropical Atlantic .. this favorable background state across the Atlantic Basin will lead to a increased chance for tropical development as we get into early and mid August ..
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model guidance ramping up - the very long range CFS model guidance continues to be very consistent in both showing tropical activity ramping up during August and also trending towards lower barometric pressures across the Atlantic Basin during the month of August .. the CFS model continues to forecast a pretty active period for tropical storm/hurricane landfall threats from mid-August to mid-October in a couple of concentrated areas ..
first area that the CFS model is indicating that may be at risk from a tropical storm/hurricane threat is the region from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and along the US East Coast from eastern Florida northward all the way to southern New England could be active with at least 3 tropical storm or hurricane threats between August 15 and October 15 ..
second area is that the central and eastern Caribbean may be quiet with no significant threats .. his remains to be seen, but this idea seems plausible given the overall weather pattern ..
third area is that the northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico could become active tropically after September 15th ..
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rainfall - rainfall across the Sahel of Africa has been above average this year and this has led to the tropical waves pushing across the African continent being stronger than average this year .. these tropical waves help to slow down the easterly trade winds and given that the tropical waves have been displaced a little further north this year, they are helping to warm up much of the Atlantic Main Development Region .. it is concerning that the entire state of the Atlantic Basin may be shifting from one that was unfavorable for development (cool ocean water temperatures across the Main Development Region) to one that is currently becoming increasingly more favorable for development (near average and trending towards above average ocean water temperatures across the Main Development Region) ..
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bottom line we think that there are two areas of concern ..
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first area - is the area from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and up the US East Coast from eastern Florida northward to southern New England .. systems this year have already been taking a path from the Bahamas northward to just offshore of the US East Coast (Chris was a great example of this) .. we suspect that we will see this continue with any tropical storms or hurricanes being guided from the far northeastern Caribbean through the Bahamas and then up the US East Coast. In fact, this was mentioned as a viable possibility in our 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast issued back in early April .. many times the atmosphere can send a signal to how things are going to progress over the next few weeks and we think we are seeing this signal now with both Chris and the path of the remnants of Beryl ..
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second area - of concern is the area from the northwestern Caribbean to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico .. we think this area could be a concern as we get a later in the season (after September 15) and we could see a scenario of another tropical system taking a path much like Alberto did back in late May .. except this time, the tropical system could be much stronger than what we had with Alberto ..
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bottom bottom line - the overall trend towards things really ramping up in terms of tropical storm/hurricane formation from mid August to mid October is concerning .. analysis of the ocean water temperatures over the central and eastern Atlantic Basin between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa (referred to as the Main Development Region) continue to warm up as the trade winds across the region are lighter than they were even a couple of weeks ago or so .. there are strong signals in the model guidance that suggests the trade winds will remain light enough to allow for continuing warming of the ocean water temperatures to above average readings during August and September across the central and eastern Atlantic ..
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2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names ..
Alberto .. Beryl .. Chris .. Debby .. Ernesto .. Florence .. Gordon .. Helene .. Isaac .. Joyce
Kirk .. Leslie .. Michael .. Nadine .. Oscar .. Patty .. Rafael .. Sara .. Tony .. Valerie ..William
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Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season .. our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather .. we also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover .. 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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