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Marv's Weather
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Marv's Tropical
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credits - in part
our Tropical Weather
Update today has
been put together with
data from
Crown Weather Services,
Mike's Weather Page
and
NOAA
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.
2020-09-27 at 03:00 pm -
Tropical Weather Update
- this afternoon we have a short
update on what we are keeping an
eye on ..
.
Western and Northwestern
Caribbean
- there is Tropical development
is possible during the first ten
days or so of October ..
.
see details below ..
.
heads up
- check our buoy reports in your
area for wind speed and wave
heights ..
.
Western and Northwestern
Caribbean
-
we think that tropical
development continues to be
unlikely this coming week across
the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf
of Mexico ..
.
at this time -
this still looks to be very
short-lived as things are likely
to pick up again in terms of
tropical development starting
next weekend (October 3-4) in
the western and northwestern
Caribbean ..
.
looking ahead
- all of the signs are there for
a tropical system to take shape
over the western or northwestern
Caribbean as soon as next
weekend (October 3-4) .. we
still think that whatever forms
in the northwestern Caribbean,
whether it’s
a tropical storm or even a
hurricane will probably be
pulled northeastward first into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
and then across the Florida
Peninsula and up the US East
Coast during next week (week of
October 5) ..
.
bottom line
- we think that the chance for
tropical development starting
next weekend in the western and
northwestern Caribbean is at
around 50 percent .. a full
comprehensive tropical weather
discussion will be posted on
Monday ..
.
.
.
2020-09-24 at 11:00 am -
Tropical Weather Update
- this morning our report is all
about the. ..
.
Western Caribbean
- there is Tropical development
is possible during the first ten
days or so of October ..
.
see details below ..
.
heads up
- check our buoy reports in your
area for wind speed and wave
heights ..
.
.
Western Caribbean
-
Tropical Development Possible
During The First Week Of October
.. we are happy to report that
tropical development is highly
unlikely through the rest of
this month as we are now,
temporarily, in a unfavorable
state for tropical development
across the Atlantic, Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico ..
.
looking ahead -
unfortunately, this break in
tropical activity may end as we
enter the first part of October.
The reason why is because we
think that there is a chance for
tropical development across the
western Caribbean during the
first 10 days or so of October..
.
looking way ahead
- here is what I’m
looking at in terms of the
potential weather pattern setup
for this possible tropical
development .. a shot of cold
air is expected to push into the
eastern United States later next
week into next weekend leading
to the potential for some very
early frosts as far south as
parts of West Virginia, northern
Virginia and Tennessee .. pushes
of cold air like this are
oftentimes the catalyst for
tropical mischief in the
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
during October .. the reason why
is because a large cold high
pressure system over the eastern
United States leads to focused
rising air to be positioned
across the Caribbean and the
southern Gulf of Mexico .. at
the same time this is occurring,
it is expected that another
upward motion pulse of the
Madden Julian Oscillation will
reach the Atlantic Basin by the
first week of October. Upward
motion pulses of the Madden
Julian Oscillation leads to a
much more favorable
environmental background state
for tropical development .. and
to add to this mix is the
potential for a tropical wave to
push off of the coast of Africa
later next week .. which may
reach the western Caribbean
around the October 3 to October
5 time frame .. all of these
factors may combine to produce
the potential for tropical
development sometime during the
first ten days or so of October,
although it seems the chances
may be higher during the October
5 to October 10 time frame
rather than the October 1 to 4
time frame ..
.
model
guidance
-
after showing tropical
development for quite a few days
in a row, it seems the GFS model
is now focusing most of its
tropical development chances on
the eastern Pacific .. we are
not convinced this is correct as
we have seen this song and dance
before with the GFS model. I
think, for some reason, this
model keeps trying to revert to
a El Nino pattern, when in fact
it is very much a La Nina state
.. thus we think the chances are
higher in the Caribbean rather
than the eastern Pacific ..
GFS ensemble model
- which was just upgraded
yesterday, seems a little more
believable in that it shows more
ensemble members forecasting
tropical development in the
western Caribbean rather than
the eastern Pacific during the
week of October 4 ..
European model
- doesn’t
show anything as of yet as it
only goes out to
October 3 for its
forecast ..
European ensemble model
- on the other hand, shows a
gradual increase in members
forecasting tropical development
in the northwestern Caribbean by
about October 6.. many of the
members then show any tropical
system heading northeastward
towards Florida and the US East
Coast ..
.
bottom line
- given the combination of an
expected favorable background
state for tropical development,
a westward moving tropical wave,
forcing and energy from a
frontal boundary over the
southern United States and a
cold high pressure system over
the eastern United States and
very warm ocean waters in the
Caribbean.. we think that we are
going to really have to watch
the western and northwestern
Caribbean for potential tropical
development during the first ten
days of October, but especially
between October 5 and October 10
.. in addition to this, any
tropical system that forms in
the western Caribbean may be
pulled north and northeastward
towards Florida, the Bahamas and
then up the US East Coast .. the
reason why is that there
continues to be strong signs in
the data that point to a trough
of low pressure to be positioned
over the eastern United States
during at least the first 10
days of October .. this trough
of low pressure may try to pull
any tropical system out of the
Caribbean and towards Florida,
the Bahamas and the US East
Coast ..
.
bottom bottom line
- at this point, this is
something to not to overly worry
about, but instead to just keep
a close watch on it ..
.
.
.
.
.
end of report
..
.
.
2020-03-11 -
2020 Atlantic,
Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico
Hurricane Season Forecast
..
.
bottom line -
we are forecasting above average
tropical storm and hurricane
season due to a combination of
either neutral ENSO conditions
or La Nina conditions, an active
Western African Monsoon, above
average ocean water temperatures
and the possibility of lower
than average wind shear
conditions .. there is also the
possibility of well above
average activity this season and
this is something that will need
to be watched closely ..
.
bottom bottom line -
at least 15 Named Storms, 8 of
those storms becoming Hurricanes
and 3 of those hurricanes
becoming Major Hurricanes
(Category 3 or higher) ..
.
2020 Atlantic
Tropical Cyclone names ..
Arthur .. Bertha .. Cristobal ..
Dolly .. Edouard .. Fay ..
Gonzalo .. Hanna .. Isaias ..
Josephine .. Kyle .. Laura ..
Marco .. Nana .. Omar ..
Paulette .. Rene .. Sally ..
Teddy .. Vicky .. Wilfred
.
NOTE
- if you
would like you can stop reading
right now .. below is just our
detail ..
.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE) index forecast -
we are forecasting an ACE index
this year of 130 .. this number
basically says that we expect
that overall activity in the
Atlantic will be
above average
..
.
ENSO conditions -
ENSO neutral conditions are
present across the Pacific and a
majority of the ENSO model
guidance are forecasting neutral
conditions through the rest of
this year .. it should be noted
that some of the guidance,
especially the CFS model, is
forecasting a transition to weak
LA Nina conditions by late
summer and early autumn .. based
on everything that we have
looked at, especially the
potential for a negative Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, that we
will see neutral ENSO conditions
throughout the
2020 Atlantic
Hurricane Season .. with that
said, ENSO forecasts this time
of year can be
highly
inaccurate ..
.
sea surface temperatures
-
sea surface temperatures across
the western Atlantic and the
Caribbean (west of 55 West
Longitude) is warmer than
average .. across the central
and eastern Tropical Atlantic,
sea surface temperatures are
below average .. the exception
is right along the west coast of
Africa where ocean water
temperatures are above average
.. one of the keys in
determining how active/inactive
the hurricane season will be is
how much will the deep tropics
(south of 25 North Latitude)
warms up during April, May and
June .. it should be noted that
at this time in 2017, 2018 and
2019, the Atlantic Main
Development Region was running a
little below average in sea
surface temperatures, but this
pattern reversed during the
hurricane season leading to a
much more active season than
what was originally thought ..
we think that it is likely that
the deep tropics will seeing
above average ocean water
temperatures, much like what we
have seen during the last 3
hurricane seasons, during July,
August and September .. in
addition, it looks like the
Western African Monsoon will be
active this year leading to the
development of some strong
tropical waves moving off of
Africa ..
.
analog years -
these are the analog years that
seem to be a close match right
now to what the 2020 hurricane
season may be like. They are
1933, 1952,
1953, 1959, 1979, 1990, 1995,
1998, 2005 & 2007 ..
.
wind shear forecast -
a majority of the seasonal model
guidance are forecasting below
average wind shear from the
Lesser Antilles through the
Caribbean during much of the
hurricane season .. in addition,
a majority of the model guidance
are forecasting the development
of below average wind shear
during August, September and
October across the Gulf of
Mexico and along the East Coast
of the United States .. this is
a different look for the
Caribbean than what we have seen
in recent years whereas
conditions may be much more
favorable for Caribbean activity
this year than has been in the
past few years ..
.
landfall threat forecast
-
the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
could be very active this
hurricane season .. a very
persistent western Atlantic
ridge of high pressure looks to
remain in place through this
summer into the fall .. this, in
combination, with an active
Western African Monsoon could
lead to systems being guided
first into and through the
Caribbean and then into the Gulf
of Mexico .. unlike previous
years we think that the
Caribbean may “wake up” and be
active in terms of tropical
storm/hurricane development ..
.
bottom line
- this means that Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula could be at
risk this year .. as for the
Gulf of Mexico, even though the
entire Gulf of Mexico looks to
be at significant risk this
season, the
west coast of Florida may
be at particular risk in June
and then again in October .. in
addition, the northern and
western Gulf Coast may have
their highest risk during August
and September .. further east,
it appears that given the
forecast position of the upper
level high pressure system that
the region from the Bahamas to
the South and North Carolina
coast may be at risk this year
for a tropical storm or
hurricane impact ..
.
looking
ahead
- given our expectations for
an active season in the
Caribbean and the potential for
an active Western African
Monsoon, both the Leeward
Islands and the Windward Islands
will need to be watched closely
for a tropical storm or
hurricane impact .. for all of
the other areas across the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico that are not highlighted
as risk areas .. it does not
mean there will not be a threat
or impact this season ..
.
at this time
- we are looking at start
sending out daily tropical
weather discussions for the
2019 Atlantic
Hurricane Season
on
Friday, May 1st ..
.
.
Tropical Weather - year end
update
date -
2019-12-01
.
2010s Hurricane Seasons (decade-in-review)
and Predictions for 2020s
by
- Dr. Ryan Truchelut -
WeatherTiger
edited by
- Marv Market - Marv’s Weather
Service
.
.
decade-in-review
- December 1st marks not only
the official conclusion of the
2019 hurricane season, but the
final month of another decade we
failed to name before it ends. A
decade in which cell phones
became just phones, more
Millennials visited Iceland than
Sears, and politely declining to
join your co-worker Janet’s
essential oils MLM became
increasingly difficult.
The 2010s were a decade of
contrasts for Atlantic
hurricanes. Despite darkest
timeline storms like Sandy,
Irma, and Michael, it was an era
of remarkable luck for the
continental U.S. coast.
Cumulative Atlantic tropical
cyclone activity in the 2010s
tallied 20% above long-term
norms, but there were only three
U.S. major hurricane
landfalls—around half of
average.
Tropical activity is chunky due
to oceanic and atmospheric
memory, and the 2010s divide
cleanly into three heftychonks.
First, the Sriracha Era of
2010-2012 saw spicy open ocean
activity but few landfalls;
second, the 2013-15 Cronut Era
fused low activity and few
impacts; finally, the Tide Pod
Era of 2016-2019 brought
nausea-inducing elevated
activity and repeated U.S.
threats. Read on for a recap of
each season and our reflections
on the 2020s.
.
2010
The distant past in which a
shave and a haircut cost two
bitcoins had one of the lowest
ratios of U.S. landfalls to
storm activity. Despite 19 named
storms, tied for third-highest,
and five major hurricanes, only
two tropical storms and a
spectacular double rainbow
affected the continental U.S. in
2010. Category 4 Hurricane Earl
menaced the Northeast, but
ultimately remained well
offshore.
.
2011
The 2011 hurricane season was
forgettable despite 19 tropical
storms. The exception was
Hurricane Irene, which made
landfall as a category 1 in the
Outer Banks and rocketed
north-northeast over New York
City as a tropical storm,
causing $16 billion in water
damage. These impacts were
exacerbated by Tropical Storm
Lee, which caused flooding in
Louisiana and the besodden East
Coast. Also, beneath its façade
of radical indifference, with
the perspective of time, it’s
safe to say honey badger
secretly cares a lot.
.
2012
The 2012 hurricane season’s 19
storms and 10 hurricanes again
mostly stayed out to sea, other
than Louisiana’s category 1
Isaac, and generational freak
storm Sandy. While Sandy became
a non-tropical low prior to
reaching shore, gales across a
1,000 mile diameter broke
records for single-storm wind
energy, sent surge up to 12’
into the Northeast, and flooded
much of New York City.
Sandy was responsible for over
230 deaths and $70 billion in
damages, slotting it temporarily
as the second-costliest U.S.
hurricane. As testament to
Sandy’s bizarre co-mingling of
tropical and mid-latitude
weather, its remnants caused
feet of snow in Appalachia, and
allowed Taylor Swift to purchase
Manhattan from panicked natives
for $476 in Red tour merch.
.
2013
The 2013 season was more
incompetent than the deaf
interpreter at Nelson Mandela’s
funeral, tallying less than a
third of normal activity. Two
hurricanes formed, fewest since
1950, and one tropical storm
made U.S. landfall.
.
2014
The 2014 season couldn’t even
with a powerful El Niño,
though six hurricanes managed to
awkwardly dab their way to net
activity about two-thirds of
normal. Eastern North Carolina
shrugged off category 2 Arthur
in early July.
.
2015
The El Niño-hurricane
feud continued, eclipsing even
the vicious Taylor Swift-Sarah
Koenig spat chronicled in “Bad
Blood [Best Buy Payphone
Remix].” The result was another
season at 60% of normal and two
early season U.S. tropical
storms. Joaquin became a
category 4 over the Bahamas, but
after some intrigue absconded
well offshore.
.
2016
To this point, the continental
U.S. had been enjoying a
historically calm decade, with
no major landfalls (or any
Florida hurricanes) since 2005.
Unfortunately, starting in 2016,
a Zillennial generation of
hurricanes broke out of the
Atlantic’s meteorological escape
room and headed for shore
wreathed in clouds of cotton
candy e-vapes.
Mean reversion was unkind to
Florida, where category 1
Hermine snapped an eleven-year
drought and caused outsized wind
damage in the Panhandle. The
marquee storm of 2016 was
Matthew, which attained category
5 status in the Caribbean,
hooked erratically north then
west, scraped 30 miles off the
Florida East Coast as a major
hurricane, and weakened
dramatically before landfall in
South Carolina. Over $10 billion
in damage occurred with this
closest of calls.
Overall, 2016 notched 140% of
typical hurricane activity, with
storms clustering over Florida
and the Southeast. The worst was
yet to come.
.
2017
This Fyre Festival of a year is
the most destructive season on
record. Not only did six major
hurricanes catapult activity to
225% of normal, there were six
landfalls on the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Of these, Harvey and Irma
became the second- and
third-costliest continental U.S.
storms.
Category 4 Harvey’s landfall in
central Texas in August began an
incredible five-week run of
catastrophic hurricanes. Harvey
did significant wind damage, but
its most devastating impacts
were biblical floods that
overwhelmed the Houston metro
area as the storm stalled for
the next five days. Rainfall
totals over 60” resulted in the
loss of over 100 lives and
damages estimated at $125
billion.
Yet, Harvey has competition for
worst hurricane of 2017.
Hurricane Irma generated more
wind energy than the entire 2013
or 2015 seasons, shattered
records for Category 5
longevity, and terrorized
Florida for a week. Land
interaction with Cuba clipped
Irma’s wings on final approach,
and the hurricane sliced through
the Keys as a category 4 before
striking Southwest Florida with
130 mph gusts and riding up the
peninsula. Irma’s toll of over
130 deaths and $78 billion in
destruction could have been yet
worse.
Completing 2017’s fearsome
triad, Hurricane Maria ravaged
Puerto Rico at category 4
intensity in late September, the
strongest landfall there in 80
years. Otherwise, category 1
Nate was a relatively harmless
cool-down for the Gulf Coast. A
brutal year with far-reaching
implications for emergency
management and civic planning,
2017 was the worst season of
2010s, other than the last
season of Dexter.
.
2018
Cool water in the Tropical
Atlantic pointed to a quiet
2018, but the season harnessed
Big Subtropical Energy to climb
25% above normal with two
epochal U.S. landfalls. A record
seven subtropical storms
occurred, and limited activity
in the Deep Tropics was offset
by intense storms between 20°
and 40°N.
Hurricane Florence epitomized
this, plowing west across the
unusually warm subtropical
Atlantic to strike North
Carolina. While Florence
weakened to a category 1 by
landfall, its glacial speed
unleashed rain totals up to 36”
on the Carolinas, causing over
50 deaths and $25 billion in
damages.
And then there was Michael.
There were only three category 5
U.S. landfalls prior to
Michael—none in October, none on
the Florida Gulf Coast. Its
four-day blitzkrieg of dizzying
intensification as it streaked
out of the Caribbean and across
the febrile eastern Gulf barely
allowed North Florida to prepare
for sustained winds to 160 mph
and surge to 16’. Michael
remained a category 3 with
observed gusts to 120 mph into
Georgia.
Hurricanes come and go, but
category 5s last for
generations. The numbers, nearly
60 U.S. deaths and a price tag
of $25 billion, do not
adequately describe the hellzone
in Michael’s wake.
.
2019
The 2019 season is a microcosm
of the 2010s: a White Claw
variety pack of tropical flavors
including staggering rapid
intensification, destructive
flooding, and a northeast shift
in where hurricanes developed
and intensified.
On one hand, brief storms were
plentiful. The weaker 80% of
this year’s 18 storms
cumulatively are responsible for
less than 20% of 2019’s total
wind energy. Climatologically,
that inequality is absurd, like
expecting the Joker to play by
society’s rules. Among these
weak storms was Hurricane Barry,
a poorly organized category 1
that reached Louisiana in
mid-July.
On the other, 2019 served up
twin category 5 monsters.
Lorenzo mercifully attained this
status in the open Atlantic,
well northeast of any known cat
5; Dorian cruelly expended more
wind energy in the Bahamas than
any other Atlantic hurricane had
over any landmass, ever.
A classic Cape Verde hurricane,
Dorian appeared poised to end
South Florida’s post-Wilma luck.
However, on approach to Abaco
Island, the already formidable
storm uncorked an insane rapid
intensification event that
launched its sustained winds to
185 mph, tied for the Atlantic’s
second-highest. Worse, Dorian
then stalled, lashing Grand
Bahama Island with winds
equivalent to an EF-4 tornado
for 24 hours, resulting in the
total destruction of many
communities. Floridians held
their breath as the compact
hurricane subsequently crawled
north just far enough offshore
to avoid major damage. Dorian
made landfall in North Carolina
as a category 1.
The dodged bullet of Dorian was
the only major U.S. threat in
2019, MoMo excepted. Tropical
Storm Imelda organized hours
before reaching land, but
another multi-day stall brought
rain totals over 40” and
billions in flood damage to
eastern Texas. Unfavorable Gulf
shear in October prevented
Nestor and Olga from making
landfall as tropical storms, and
net hurricane activity again
totaled 25% above normal.
.
Predictions for 2020s
-
We’ve
come a long way since 2010
(e.g., the friends kickin’ in
the backseat with Rebecca Black
have graduated pre-med programs
with crushing student loan
debt). What lessons can be drawn
from this bimodal decade of
immoderation, in which all
hurricane seasons tallied either
below 65% or over 120% of normal
activity?
Comparing the tracks of the
decade’s 72 hurricanes with
climatology reveals contrasting
regional anomalies. Much above
normal hurricane activity was
centered in the western Atlantic
east of Florida and the
Carolinas. The subtropical
central and eastern Atlantic
were also busy. The Main
Development Region west of
Africa was close to normal; the
Gulf and Caribbean each saw far
below typical hurricane
frequency.
The paucity of near-shore
hurricanes is reflected in U.S.
landfall count (13) registering
80% of normal, despite seven
active seasons of the decade’s
ten. Curiously, the Florida East
Coast evaded multiple scrapes
and finished with no hurricane
landfalls, against an expected
three.
bottom
line
- is if you’re in the Northeast
U.S., North Florida, Southwest
Florida, or Houston, your luck
was not ideal. Everyone else,
don’t
complain.
So, here’s some possibly
ill-advised predictions for the
2020s.
First
- the villain in Bee Movie 2
will be named Jeff Beezos, all
legacy media will merge with Joe
Rogan’s podcast, and global
warming will be solved by
mirroring the foot-thick layer
of abandoned e-scooters covering
Earth.
Second
-
look for the multitudes
contained in the 2019 hurricane
season—mind-boggling rapid
intensification, erratic stalls,
destructive flooding—to continue
to become more common in the
next decade.
Finally
- expect more May starts to
hurricane seasons, and for
favored regions of development
to keep expanding north.
bottom line
- Will the U.S. again be
disproportionately fortunate in
the 2020s ? .. we wouldn’t bet
on it. There’s no long-term
trend in continental U.S.
landfall energy, and the 2010s
show that provident streaks
often have violent ends. Shift
Matthew or Dorian 75 miles west
and we wouldn’t be talking about
South Florida’s good fortune.
Remember, hurricane seasons are
chunky.
looking ahead
- Let’s revisit these
predictions in December 2029. In
the meantime, see you next year
for the first hurricane season
of the 2020s .. here’s wishing
you a happy rest of the decade.
.
.
Our Tropical Weather
reports - for the most
part are put together only
during tropical weather
season .. our reports are
based on a number of online
sources and are based on our
past experience dealing with
tropical weather .. we also
occasionally include
non-tropical weather that
would affect the area /
footprint that we cover ..
.
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disclaimer - all
forecasts herein are made to the best
ability of the forecaster .. however, due to
standard forecasting error, these forecasts
cannot be guaranteed .. any action or
inaction taken by users of this forecast is
the sole responsibility of that user .. |
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