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credits - in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from
Crown Weather Services, Mike's Weather Page  and NOAA
below are links to their websites
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2017-09-20 - Tropical Weather Update .. today our update is on Hurricane Maria in the eastern Atlantic ..
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Hurricane Maria - the center of Major Hurricane Maria made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico at about 6:15 am this morning as a 155 mph Category 4 hurricane .. this is the first Category 4 hurricane landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932 .. in addition, this is the third Category 4 hurricane to make US landfall in the same season and this, obviously, is exceptionally rare ..
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at this time - Maria is expected to move off of the coast of Puerto Rico into the Atlantic by about midday today and will track on a general northwestward path through Thursday and Friday .. this track will bring Maria very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands late Thursday night into Friday morning .. the various model guidance members are trending towards a track that keeps the core of Maria just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas which if it happens would spare the islands another major hurricane hit .. with that said, it's going to be an extremely close call and we strongly urge everyone across the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos Islands to prepare for major hurricane conditions with winds of up to 130-140 mph and a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet on Thursday night into Friday morning ..
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looking ahead - there remains a large amount of uncertainty as to where Maria will track in relation to the US East Coast this weekend into next week .. over the last 24 hours, most of the track guidance have shifted westward with the forecast track of Maria .. this shift westward is likely due to the model guidance trending towards a weaker Jose which if it happens wont leave a weakness in the high pressure ridge over the northeastern United States .. in addition, the model guidance have also trended slightly stronger with the western Atlantic ridge of high pressure .. these two high pressure ridges could potentially block Maria from moving away from the US East Coast and instead be potentially drawn inland somewhere between North Carolina and Long Island, New York and southern New England during the early and middle part of next week ..
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model guidance - the GFS model has been shifting to the west and then back to the east with each new model run and these are likely to continue with the forecast track of Maria .. what is more revealing is that the GFS model is trending towards a weaker Jose which has much less influence on the forecast track of Maria. In addition, the GFS model seems to be gradually trending stronger with the western Atlantic high pressure ridge .. the European model guidance has trended towards Jose completely dissipating by early next week with a high pressure ridge building back in over southeastern Canada and northern New England .. the latest European model guidance forecasts a very close brush to the outer banks of North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a quick turn to the east-northeast pulling the hurricane out into the open Atlantic. It would not surprise me and I almost expect to see the European model start to trend further west with the forecast track of Maria in the coming days as I think Maria will be blocked from moving away from the US East Coast .. the model guidance ensemble track guidance mean for Maria has shifted westward and shows a very close shave to the outer banks of North Carolina .. unfortunately we think that we will see the track guidance continue to shift westward with the forecast track of Maria in the coming days ..
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bottom line - we think that Maria will end up posing a significant threat to areas from North Carolina northward to southern New England between Tuesday and Thursday of next week .. there are a number of reasons why we tthink this ..
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first reason why - we think this is because I do not think that Jose will play a significant role in the future track of Maria .. originally, the model guidance were forecasting a strong storm to linger off of the New England coast for over a week and this seemed way overdone we think that Jose will have very little, if any, influence on the northeastern United States high pressure ridge and this in turn should lead to Maria being blocked from quickly turning to the northeast out into the open Atlantic ..
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second reason why - we think Maria poses a significant threat to areas from North Carolina to southern New England is the strength of the western Atlantic high pressure ridge .. we still have concerns that the model guidance may be under forecasting the strength of the high pressure ridge and that in the end it will be stronger than what the guidance currently suggests .. a stronger high pressure ridge would lead to Maria being pushed further west much closer to the US East Coast between North Carolina and southern New England .. a stronger western Atlantic high pressure ridge would also block Maria from turning suddenly to the northeast and east-northeast away from the US East Coast ..
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third reason why - we think Maria will come very close to the US East Coast from North Carolina to southern New England is that currently the model guidance are forecasting that a large trough of low pressure moving eastward from the Midwestern United States will be the saving grace and will be able to boot Maria into the open Atlantic .. we think that there is the possibility that this trough of low pressure will hang back a little more and allow Maria to make landfall rather than pushing it away from the US East Coast. I am already seeing these trends in the model guidance of a further west positioned trough ..
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bottom bottom line - we may see a track that causes Maria to either make landfall somewhere between eastern North Carolina and Long Island and southern New England as a hurricane or ride the coast from eastern North Carolina to Long Island, New York between Tuesday and Thursday of next week .. with that said, the track forecast for Maria from this weekend through next week continues to have a high level of uncertainty. I urge everyone from North Carolina to Long Island and southern New England to keep very close tabs on the track forecast of Maria in the coming days ..
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bottom line - long range track - at this time .. 0 percent into the Gulf .. 10 percent US east coast landfall .. 90 percent will head off into the Atlantic ..
 
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for more details check out
Crown Weather Service at - http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/cws-plus-weather-discussions/ .
NOAA at - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mike's Weather Page - http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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disclaimer - all forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster .. however, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed .. any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user ..

 

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