Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Sep 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 20N southward across a broad 1009 mb low pressure (AL92) near 12N41W. This whole system is moving west around 15 kt. Numerous scattered to scattered strong convection is seen from 10N to 17N between 35W and 42W. This system is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. This system is showing signs of organization, and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week. There is a medium chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Please visit the NHC website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atl for more detail.
TROPICAL WAVES Read the Special Features section above on a central Atlantic tropical wave.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 21N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N to 23N between 53W and 58W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from near the Windward Passage southward to over northeastern Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted from the Windward Passage eastward across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast near Nouakchott, then extends west-southwestward through a 1009 mb low near 12N41W (AL92) to 10N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and south of the trough from 09N to 13N east of 23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the western end of the trough from 08N to 13N between 42W and 46W.
Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea, including waters near Panama.
A diurnal surface trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Bay of Campeche, and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is supporting mostly gentle NE to E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the high will continue to dominate the Gulf through the week, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Fresh winds will prevail in the north-central and northwestern Gulf tonight as the existing high being reinforced by a stronger high. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. CARIBBEAN SEA
Convergent trades are being enhanced by divergent southerly winds aloft to generate numerous moderate to scattered strong convection at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over central Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.
A subtropical ridge near 26N continues to supply a trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the north-central, eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen at the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Gentle NNE to E winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the central basin on Tue and through the western basin Tue night into Thu night. Expect fresh trades over the central basin into Tue night in the wake of the wave. Another tropical wave is expected to enter the eastern basin Tue into Wed. Fresh to strong trades will pulse in the south-central basin into Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and seas will prevail through the week.
Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning about potential tropical cyclone formation in the central Atlantic.
A mid-level low near 27N65W is triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection northeast of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 59W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning on additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1024 mb high near 32N50W is sustaining gentle to moderate ENE to SE to SSW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 13N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft are evident with the highest winds and seas near 15N40W. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate winds and seas across the western Atlantic through the week. Regardless of development about the system mentioned in the Special Features section, expect increasing winds and building seas over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by Thu into Fri.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services