Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of 19N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 56W and 64W.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-42W. GULF OF AMERICA
A 1020 mb high is analyzed over eastern Texas, with its associated ridging stretching east-southeastward across the basin. Its related gradient is generally allowing for northerly winds across the basin, of gentle to moderate speeds east of 91W, and of light to gentle to speeds west of 91W, as noted by buoy observations and as depicted in recent Ascat satellite data passes. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate that moderate seas prevail across the basin, with highest seas across the eastern half of the basin. A very dry and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently occurring over the Gulf.
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight producing in general a light to gentle northerly wind flow. Winds will veer to the SE and S over the western Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico by Sun morning, and front central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek.
Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean.
A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N79W, where it begins to weaken to 17N81W, then transitions to shearline from there to near 11N83W. Latest Ascat satellite data pass reveals fresh to strong north winds west of the shearline to the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, and fresh northeast winds within 120 nm northwest of the frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds over the rest of the basin. To the southeast of these features, a surface trough is analyzed along 75W and S of 17N. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate that moderate seas prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds between the shearline and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat, in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat night as the wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave may reach the western Caribbean.
A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N63W to 21N75W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N59W to 21N72W. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and rough seas are behind the front/trough. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 29N east of the front to near 56W along with rough to very rough seas in NW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the front/trough with fresh winds and rough seas. Farther to the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N30W to near 23N37W. A broad deep layer trough is supporting it, with related upper dynamics sustaining an area of scattered moderate convection from 26N to 31N and between 25W and the trough. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure, anchored by a 1019 mb high center near 25N53W, covers the region. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 35W and 60W. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually dissipate tonight into Sat, then shift westward as a remnant trough through Mon. Rough to very rough seas generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa that are still affecting the NE waters will subside below 12 ft by this evening. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. Meanwhile, fresh winds and rough seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean with building high pressure to the NE.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services