Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
to receive our free report directly to your inbox
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge building across the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N67W to central Cuba and an approaching surface trough from the east will lead to the expansion of fresh to strong winds over the weekend and the development of frequent gust to gale force winds over the northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. The surface trough, currently along 55W, has strong to near gale force winds in the northern portion of its axis along with very rough seas to 16 ft. Winds will start to gradually weaken across the region Sun night into Mon, and seas will subside below 12 ft Tue.
The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of the threat of cyclonic near gale or gale in the marine zone IRVING. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours after the initial 36-hour forecast period. Please, refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N10W and extends southwestward to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N34W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 10N between 20W and 45W.
Strong high pressure anchored over the SE CONUS, extends a ridge across the basin and Florida, and continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft in the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere.
For the forecast, a strong high pressure and associated ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Sun night. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds elsewhere will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon morning and prevail across the basin through Tue night.
A weakening stationary front extending from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras dissipated early this morning. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft continues to affect the NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage as strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expanding and shifting ENE, leading to a tighter pressure gradient. The ridge also supports fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central basin, including Hispaniola adjacent waters, off Colombia and in the Mona Passage. Seas across the central Caribbean are moderate to rough. In the E Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE and seas are slight to moderate.
For the forecast, a strong ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico and shifting to the SW N Atlantic waters will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon afternoon and to light to gentle speeds on Tue as the broad high pressure shift NE and then eastward to the north-central Atlantic waters. The high pressure will also support fresh to strong NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean through Sat morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Caribbean will gradually diminish today as a surface trough moves across the region.
A weakening stationary front extends from 31N67W across the Bahamas to central Cuba. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas continue to affect the central and southern Florida offshore waters, and the northern and central Bahamas. Further east, over the offshore waters to the NE of Puerto Rico, a broad surface trough along 55W is generating scattered showers and tstms. The trough is also supporting strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas to 16 ft, which cover most of the central subtropical waters. A broad area of low pressure is to the W of the Canary Islands and is also supporting scattered showers over portions of the eastern subtropical waters. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 13 ft are associated with this elongated area of low pressure.
For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate later today. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas affecting the central and southern Florida offshore waters, and the northern and central Bahamas will prevail and expand in areal coverage through the weekend as strong high pressure building in the wake of the front tightens the pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the east. This will lead to the development of frequent gust to gale force winds over the northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. Winds will start to gradually weaken across the region Sun night into Mon, and seas will subside below 12 ft Tue.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services