Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 19 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough is near the coast of Sierra Leone to 08N13W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 05N22W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed south of 02N and W of 35W.
A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward into the NE basin, with the associated ridge dominating the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the SW half of the basin, with the strong winds occurring off W Yucatan. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the NE basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf and 1 to 3 ft in the NE. No significant convection is present.
For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico will be in control of the wind flow pattern over most of the area through late Sat. A moist return flow across the northern Gulf is likely to lead to patchy areas of fog at night through Sat. Fresh to strong winds northeast to east winds will continue pulsing off the NW Yucatan peninsula and south-central Gulf at night through Sat night, then pulse at mostly fresh speeds through Tue night. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move into the far NW Gulf Sun morning, reach from northern Florida to near 27N90W and to northeast Mexico Sun evening, then stall from west-central Florida to 26N90W and to northeast Mexico early on Mon. The front is expected to gradually become diffuse into Tue night. Moderate to fresh northeast winds will follow the front, except briefly reaching strong speeds over the waters east of southern Texas Sun night.
The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to force fresh to locally strong trade winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades have also developed this afternoon offshore Colombia. Mainly moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the remainder of the basin. No significant convection is occurring at this time.
For the forecast, broad high pressure located between Bermuda and the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong trade winds in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage at night during the next few days. These winds will gradually diminish this weekend into early next week as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic and the pressure gradient relaxes. High pressure that will build in behind the front is expected to support fresh to locally strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean starting Mon.
A deep layer trough is reflected at the surface from near 30N51W to 23N57W to 19N62W. This trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 30N between 45W and 56W. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are present in the vicinity of this convection, with locally higher winds and seas possible in the stronger thunderstorms.
High pressure of 1020 mb is centered across the NW waters near 30N72W. The pressure gradient between the high and the low pressure trough is leading to moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft S of 27N and between the Bahamas and the surface trough. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
To the east of the surface trough, the central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a 1019 mb high pressure system positioned near 27N38W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds south of 20N and E of 55W. Wave heights are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Satellite imagery suggests than Saharan air dominates this area S of 20N between Africa and 45W. Slight to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin.
For the forecast W of 55W, the trough of low pressure will move northeast of the forecast waters tonight. The remainder of the SW N Atlantic is under the influence of high pressure that supports moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 27N. Winds will diminish and seas will subside over these waters as the trough continues to pull away allowing for the pressure gradient to relax. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the Florida offshore waters N of the NW Bahamas starting Sun afternoon ahead of a cold front forecast to move off NE Florida Sun night. These winds will reach strong speeds Sun night and diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Mon. On Tue and Tue night, weak high pressure will settle in over the western half of the area providing for light to gentle winds over most of the area, except east of 65W where winds will be gentle to moderate.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services