Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal at 13N17W and continues southwestward to 01N27W. The ITCZ extends from 01N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 09W and 20W, and from 00N to 05N between 45W and 51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 00N to 05N between 20W and 36W.
GULF OF AMERICA High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas, except in the NE Gulf where light to gentle and slight seas prevail. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is analyzed, and in the Straits of Florida. A stable airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period due to persistent high pressure NE of the area.
A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded showers, extends from northern Colombia to the NE across the eastern Caribbean and the northern Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is associated with strong SW winds aloft. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted, producing isolated to scattered passing showers. High pressure north of the Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens.
A broad surface trough remains over the Atlantic forecast waters to the NE of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are noted near and to the E of the northern end of the trough axis. This convective activity is affecting mainly the waters N of 25N between 54W and 60W. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds on either side of the trough. A frontal boundary along 31N is supporting fresh NE to E winds roughly N of 29N between 55W and 65W. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging to the east of northern Florida and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades over the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located E of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in NW Africa is resulting in fresh to strong NE winds N of 15N and E of 25W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue to weaken while the frontal boundary will move eastward over the next couple days. A cold front will move S of 31N Sun night, then reach from near 31N61W to 26N72W to Daytona Beach Florida by Mon evening. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow in behind the front.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services