Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure currently centered near 24N53W will drift N over the next 48 to 72 hours, then curve E and begin to accelerate. This low is forecast to strengthen during this time. Strong to near gale-force winds on the N side of this low will increase to gales tonight, with the area of gales expanding to all areas N of 28N between 45W and 60W Mon night into Tue. Sustained winds of 40 to 45 kt are forecast. Gale conditions are likely to persist much of this week near this low pressure. A broad area of 12 to 18 ft seas in a combination of N long period swell and wind waves generated by this low pressure extends N of 23N between 40W and 65W. Seas will become increasingly hazardous in this region as the low intensifies and winds increase, with seas in the area of gales forecast to reach 20 to 25 ft Tue into Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gales are forecast over the next 24 hours over portions of marine zones Madeira, Casablanca, and Agadir, mainly N of 30N. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by METEO-France at the website: http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W from 05N23W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the axes of these features.

GULF OF MEXICO

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Middle Texas coast. No convection is associated with this boundary and winds on both sides if are light to gentle. Offshore Deep South Texas and adjacent portions of northern Mexico, moderate southerly winds are approaching the front. Elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico, modest ridging associated with high pressure centered in the SE U.S. is leading to mainly gentle SE winds. Seas are 3 ft or less, except for 5 in the Yucatan Channel and in the Bay of Campeche. The basin remains void of significant convection, with the exception of a cluster of thunderstorms moving W through the central Bay of Campeche. N of the aforementioned boundary, patchy fog is restricting visibility along the northern Gulf coast, mainly within 90 nm of shore.

For the forecast, the stationary front in the northern Gulf will dissipate today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate much of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Moderate to fresh NE trades dominate the central and western Caribbean, with gentle to moderate mainly N winds in the east. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except in the SE basin, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Some moderate long period N swell is passing through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean. No significant convection is occurring in the basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Little overall change in weather pattern is anticipated during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please read the Special Features section above for information on gales developing in association with low pressure SE of Bermuda as well as ongoing gales in the far eastern Atlantic.

The Atlantic basin is becoming increasingly dominated by strengthening 10015 mb low pressure centered near 24N53W. N of this low, an expansive area of strong NE to E winds extends from 40W to 60W. Fresh NE winds dominate S and W of this low and prevail to the SE Bahamas and greater Antilles. In the SE quadrant of the low, winds are mainly moderate, by relatively cyclonic in direction N of 20N and W of 40W. Widespread moderate with scattered strong convection associated with this low is located N of 25N between 47W and 62W.

Farther west, a weak cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to the NE FL coast. Behind the front moderate to fresh N winds prevail, with light to gentle winds ahead of it. No convection is occurring with this boundary, which should dissipate today.

For the remainder of the basin, S of 20N and E of 40W, mainly gentle trades dominate.

A very large expanse of seas in excess of 8 ft are impacting the Atlantic waters N of 20N and W of 75W, with seas in excess of 12 ft in the area associated with the low pressure, detailed in the Special Features section above, as well in and around the Canary and Azores islands and offshore Morocco. To the S and W of the higher seas area, seas average 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure just E of the area near 24N54W will drift north through midweek, then turn E and move away from the area late this week. This will bring additional strong winds to the NE waters Mon, increasing to gales Tue and continuing through Thu. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas through the week.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services