Tropical Weather Reports

in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA

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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

SPECIAL FEATURES

As of 02/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Bonnie is inland over Nicaragua centered near 11.3N 85.1W, or 40 nm NE of Liberia Costa Rica moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 65 nm NE of the center. 12 ft seas are within 75 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant. Heavy rain is mainly occurring over southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica with scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean from 11N to 13N between 81W and the coast of Nicaragua. Bonnie will spend the morning moving across southern Nicaragua before emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean later today. Bonnie is expected to strengthen again in the Pacific, with the forecast reaching hurricane strength by early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

TROPICAL WAVES

The axis of a tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 36W, from 02N to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is weak.

The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 64W over the eastern Caribbean, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 61W and 66W. Fresh to strong winds extend approximately 2-3 degrees on either side of the northern portion of the wave, from 14N to 20N.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 10N33W, where the convergent flow is disrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 07N39W to 04N51W, along NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 22W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A weak surface ridge extends from high pressure near Bermuda across the Gulf, with lower pressure over Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate S winds in the western Gulf and moderate SE winds in the southern Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in these areas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE basin, with gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the Gulf tonight along 28N and will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week to produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Bonnie.

As Tropical Storm Bonnie clears the basin, fresh to strong easterlies continue to dominate the majority of the central and eastern basin with 7-10 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bonnie is inland across Nicaragua and exiting away from the southwest Caribbean. Bonnie will continue westward and emerge across the Pacific waters by this afternoon. Seas across the western Caribbean associated with Bonnie will gradually subside today. A strong tropical wave located along 65W will continue moving quickly westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight and across the central Caribbean Sun and Sun night. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off NE Florida associated with newly formed Tropical Storm Colin over South Carolina. Southerly winds are moderate to fresh in this area. A 1024 mb high pressure near Bermuda dominates the pattern in the remainder of the western Atlantic with gentle to moderate easterlies increasing to fresh south of 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 22N and 6-10 ft south of 22N. In the central Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the east with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are also moderate in the eastern Atlantic, but predominately from the NE.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic N of 30N and will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and exiting TS Bonnie will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage today. Then, a strong tropical wave will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend and bring a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across the waters S of 24N through Sun.

Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services