Tropical Weather Reports
in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
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in part our Tropical Weather Update today has been put together with data from Crown Weather Services, Windy and NOAA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 31 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
A broad tropical wave has been relocated along 41W, south of 22N, based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance diagnostics. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N and between 37W and 44W.
An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave.
An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are evident near the wave axis. The wave is also enhancing the storm activity over Central America.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 1014 mb low pres near 11N41W to 08N48W. No significant convection is evident outside the convection described in the Tropical Waves section.
satellite imagery depict a few showers off SW Louisiana and SE Texas and in the Bay of Campeche, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf of America. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong winds are associated with the storms in the NW Gulf waters. A weak surface ridge supports moderate or weaker winds and slight seas across the Gulf waters.
For the forecast, fairly weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase along and just inland the NE Gulf coast this weekend as a weakening cold front stalls across northern Florida. This activity may spread out over some portions of the northeast Gulf.
A few showers are seen off eastern Yucatan, in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Generally dry conditions are found elsewhere in the Caribbean. High pressure north of the Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas are noted in these waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh easterly breezes in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the area described are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to allow for fresh winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, is expected to move through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, reaching the central Caribbean late Sun. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas early next week following the tropical wave over the central Caribbean.
A surface trough centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico result in a few showers in the area. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, are under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure system north of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted off northern Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge north of the Azores. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas south of 28N and between 35W and 65W. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas are occurring between 15W and 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds and rough seas north of the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then to the waters north of Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas Sun into early next week.
Our Tropical Weather reports - for the most part are put together only during tropical weather season. Our reports are based on a number of online sources and are based on our past experience dealing with tropical weather. We also occasionally include non-tropical weather that would affect the area / footprint that we cover. For additional information check out Crown Weather Services